Archive for November, 2008
Electoral College Votes:
Fox News: Obama 200 – 90 McCain (Website still broken – using webstream for figures)
ABC News: Obama 200 – 130 McCain
CBS News: Obama 199 – 124 McCain
CNN News: Obama 199 – 78 McCain
Popular vote: Obama 50% – 49% McCain (Obama leads by approximately 300,000 votes)
Bellwethers:
Missouri: McCain 53% – 45% Obama (13% counted).
Ohio (Historically, Republicans need this to win): Obama 54% – 45% McCain (24% counted).
I’ve been up since 10pm and I need some sleep. I’m going to take a nap until 3pm. By then, we might just have a definite result.
Samuel
November 5th, 2008 at 01:56pm
Electoral College Votes:
Fox News: Broken again. Obama 0 – 0 McCain.
ABC News: Obama 102 – 49 McCain
CBS News: Obama 102 – 54 McCain
CNN News: Obama 102 – 43 McCain
Popular vote: Obama 50% – 50% McCain (Obama leads by approximately 12,000 votes)
Bellwethers:
Missouri: McCain 54% – 44% Obama (2% counted).
Ohio (Historically, Republicans need this to win): Obama 60% – 39% McCain (3% counted).
I’m taking 45 minutes off for lunch now.
Samuel
November 5th, 2008 at 01:01pm
The Bellwether state of Missouri has just closed the doors on the polls, and the results will start coming in shortly.
At this time John McCain is leading the electoral college vote by 21-3, however Obama is leading the popular vote 53%-47%.
Florida, with 27 electoral college votes to give away is being led by Obama 56%-44% with 27% counted. John McCain is leading Virginia 56%-43% with 16% counted. It has 13 votes to give away.
12:03: Early votes now flooding in from states which have just had the polls close. It puts Obama a long way ahead on 81-39.
12:06pm: ABC News have Obama leading 104-34, although ABC are relying on their own exit polls for some of these states. Fox News have Obama leading 77-39. CNN 77-34 in Obama’s favour.
12:09pm: Confusion as I watch ABC America’s coverage…their reporter is wearing a headset microphone, and holding a handheld microphone which he is talking in to.
12:14pm: Ohio, which has been a bellwether state in every election except two since 1896, is currently 68% in favour of Obama with less than 1% of the vote counted. Results are not yet flowing in from Missouri.
12:27pm: Just doing a bit of blogwatching and I stumbled across the most ill-informed thing that I’ve read today. Simon Rumble thinks that the US electoral system is as simple as ticking one box. Err, no Simon, it’s not just a presidential election…just check what people are voting for in Nevada. 45 things to vote for. Simon, do some research.
12:30pm:
Fox News: Obama 81 – 39 McCain
ABC News: Obama 102 – 34 McCain
CBS News: Obama 81 – 39 McCain
CNN News: Obama 81 – 34 McCain
Popular vote: Obama 51% – 49% McCain
12:32pm:
Bellwethers:
Ohio (Republicans pick this up every time that they win the race): Obama 65% – 34% McCain
Missouri (True bellwether): No results yet.
12:40pm:
Fox News: Site not working properly.
ABC News: Obama 102 – 49 McCain
CBS News: Obama 102 – 54 McCain
CNN News: Obama 102 – 34 McCain
Popular vote: Obama 49% – 50% McCain (McCain leads by approximately 50,000 votes)
12:45pm:
Bellwethers:
Ohio (Republicans pick this up every time that they win the race): Obama 64% – 35% McCain (less than 1% counted).
Missouri (True bellwether): McCain 60% – 39% Obama (less than 1% counted).
12:50pm:
Fox News: Looks like they’re rebuilding their vote count or something. Obama 81 – 39 McCain. Very outdated.
ABC News: Obama 102 – 49 McCain
CBS News: Obama 102 – 54 McCain
CNN News: Obama 102 – 34 McCain
Popular vote: Obama 49% – 50% McCain (McCain leads by approximately 30,000 votes)
Samuel
November 5th, 2008 at 12:03pm
The polls are now closed in six states, and the early vote is in favour of John McCain.
CBS News is reporting that John McCain has 51% of the popular vote, Barack Obama has 48%. The more important news is the electoral college results, which currently have John McCain leading 8-3. 270 is the required number for victory.
You may have noticed that I’ve added the CBS News results ticker to the sidebar. It’s wider than the sidebar so it might break the site in some browsers. I’m still testing it, but if you spot any problems, please let me know.
Update 11:12am: Exit polls:
Fox News: Barack Obama 57% – John McCain 40%
CBS News: 75% say Bush is out of touch. End Update
Update 11:32am:
West Virginia has now been awarded to John McCain by CBS News. That puts McCain in the lead by 13-3. End Update
Update 11:35am:
Fox have joined the party and agree that it’s McCain 13-3, however Obama is leading the popular vote 51%-48%.
Currently in the senate race it’s the Democrats in front 41-27 with 51 required for a majority. End Update
Update 11:39am:
Fox News have awarded Delaware to Obama. Delaware is worth three electoral college votes, so that would make the count 13-6 in favour of McCain. End Update
Update 11:46am: Fox News have just retracted Delaware, which brings them back in line with CBS News, with a 13-3 lead to Obama. ABC (US) News and CNN are calling it an 8-3 lead for McCain. End Update
Update 11:50am: CBS’ have just given South Carolina to McCain, and that gives McCain a 21-3 lead. The popular vote is currently 54% in favour of Obama. End Update
Samuel
November 5th, 2008 at 11:05am
Counting has begun in Maine, New Hampshire, Indiana, and Kentucky. .
Maine, which accounts for four electoral college votes, is 67%-33% in favour of Obama with 0.163% of the vote counted.
New Hampshire, which also has four electoral college votes, is also 67%-33% in favour of Barack Obama with 0.664% of the vote counted.
Indiana, with 11 electoral college votes, is 50%-48% in favour of Barack Obama, with 1.415% of the vote counted.
Kentucky with 8 electoral college votes, 62%-35% in favour of John McCain with 0.452% of the vote counted.
To win, a candidate needs 270 electoral college votes, so it’s fair to say that states like California, Texas and Florida with 55, 34 and 27 electoral college votes respectively are going to be much more important than these states…but to the same extent, every vote counts, and even a small state could make the difference.
Update 10:46am: CBS News is reporting that John McCain is leading the popular vote 53% to 46%. End Update
Samuel
November 5th, 2008 at 10:38am
The polls are opening across the US, and CBS News is reporting that Barack Obama has already cast his vote in the presence of his family. John McCain is expected to cast his vote in about an hour from now.
We’re not going to see any results coming in until at least late this morning Canberra time, and we probably won’t see anything substantial until mid-afternoon, especially as polls in the western states won’t close until then. Regardless of the outcome, there is going to be a lot of history made today. We’re either going to have the first black president, or the oldest person to start their first term as president, plus the first female vice-president.
As for who will win, well I’m sticking by my prediction of a narrow McCain/Palin victory, and I think the thing which will push them over the line is the tape which got a very strong run in the US media yesterday where Barack Obama was talking about his carbon trading plans, and said that anybody can build a new coal power station, but the carbon trading scheme will send them bankrupt…he also talked about how the price of electricity will “necessarily skyrocket” under his scheme. I’ve linked to an op-ed piece rather than a news article here simply because the op-ed piece has the audio of the quotes whereas the news articles seem to mostly be focussing on one quote, or the other, or the reaction of Sarah Plain who has been visiting some of the “coal states” to hammer the tape home.
Barack Obama is still leading almost every poll out there by about seven points, and he is obviously a very good chance of winning, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a bit of a sympathy vote in his favour due to his grandmother passing away in the last couple of days. I think that the vast majority of people voting will be doing so on issues of substance rather than a sympathy vote, but a 1% sympathy vote wouldn’t surprise me.
That said, as I’ve said before, I think this is going to be a lot closer than the polls indicate, and I note that the US mainstream media are speculating about the possibility of Obama/Biden winning the popular vote (eg, receiving more votes than McCain/Palin) but still losing the election based on the electoral college distribution system. If it were to happen, it would be a repeat of the 2000 election where Democratic candidate Al Gore received 537,179 more votes than Republican candidate George W. Bush but lost the election due to the electoral college distribution by 271 votes to 266 votes. Prior to 2000, the winner of the popular vote lost the election in 1876 and 1888.
A few things of interest which I’ve noticed or had my attention drawn to in the last few days:
A Fox News pre-election poll shows Obama leading by seven points, but only by one point amongst the poll respondents who claim to have already voted:
With just one day to go before Election Day, Barack Obama has a 7 percentage point lead over John McCain — 50-43 percent, according to the final FOX News pre-election poll of likely voters.
At the end of October, Obama led by 47-44 percent among likely voters, and by 49-40 percent about ten days ago (Oct 20-21). The last time McCain led was immediately following the Republican Convention when he had a 45-42 percent edge (September 8-9 among registered voters).
Looking at the preferences among key groups, the most important has to be independents and Obama has a slim 43 percent-38 percent advantage. Obama has had a single-digit edge among independents for the last month.
Party loyalty is fairly balanced. Obama receives the backing of 89 percent of Democrats and McCain has 88 percent of Republicans.
[..]
Obama’s lead among those who say they have already voted has almost disappeared. He has a 1-point edge — just 48-47 percent — in this latest poll, down from a 52-43 percent lead previously (Oct 28-29).
Election analyst Paul N. Marston, who has apparently been correct about the outcome of every election that he has had a prediction on in the last 45 years, is predicting a massive 52 electoral college votes victory by McCain/Palin.
A possible omen bet for the day. Outgoing first lady Laura Bush is having a birthday today. She turns 62. Will her birthday wish be for a McCain/Palin victory, and will she remember to not tell anyone about her wish?
Centrebet, a few days ago when I placed $20 on John McCain, were offering odds of $1.05 for Barack Obama, and $9.00 for John McCain. 24 hours ago, not long before they closed the market and removed the odds from their website, were offering $1.08 for Barack Obama and about $7.50 for John McCain. It’s still a large lead for Barack Obama, but it shows that a significant number of people have been willing to part with their hard-earned money in support of John McCain in the last few days.
KXNT Las Vegas‘ webpoll currently has McCain/Palin on 90% (no change from two days ago) and Obama/Biden on 5% (one point up from two days ago).
2GB’s poll has McCain/Palin on 62% and Obama/Biden on 38% (a four point gain to McCain/Palin in the last two days).
As per tradition, the tiny town of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire was the first to open its doors to voters. The results, Obama/Biden won 15 votes to 6.
I intend on updating this blog during the day as results come in. I had plenty of sleep yesterday in expectation of not getting much (if any) sleep today. It’s an exciting day…and just think, there an election in New Zealand on the weekend to keep my excitement levels up there. I’ve barely checked in on that one, but at the moment, Centrebet believe that incumbent Labour Prime Minister Helen Clark ($3.50) will lose to the National Party’s John Key ($1.30).
Samuel
November 5th, 2008 at 02:10am
As usual I’ll be providing results as they happen
Or I might be sleeping. Sorry, but I slept through most of the day.
Anyway, the results:
1st: 10 – Viewed. Win $45.50. Place $14.00
2nd: 12 – Bauer. Place $6.50
3rd: 4 – C’est La Guerre. Place $7.80
Quinella $553.20. Exacta $1156.30. Trifecta $22,324.20
Full list of finishers:
1st: Viewed
2nd: Bauer
3rd: C’est La Guerre
4th: Master O’Reilly
5th: Profound Beauty
6th: Moatize
7th: Mad Rush
8th: Nom du Jeu
9th: Zipping
10th: Newport
11th: Ice Chariot
12th: Guyno
13th: Littorio
14th: Varevees
15th: Boundless
16th: Red Lord
17th: Prize Lady
18th: Septimus
19th: Barbaricus
20th: Alessandro Volta
21st/Last: Honolulu
Did not finish: Gallopin
Scratched: Yellowstone, Zarita
And that means that, as usual, the owners of the horses that I tipped should have just packed up their bags and gone home:
Nom Du Jeu: 8th
Littorio: 13th
Alessandro Volta: 20th
Samuel
November 4th, 2008 at 09:29pm
It’s that time of the day on the first Tuesday in November when the owners, trainers, jockeys and other connections start refreshing the page on this blog constantly, waiting to see if their horse is one of the three which might as well go home. Yes, it’s time for me to tip three horses which I think are likely to come first, second and third in the Melbourne Cup.
My tips:
Nom Du Jeu
Alessandro Volta
Littorio
If you can’t be near a TV or radio at 3PM, but still want to hear the race, then there are a number of webstreams available. As usual I’ll link to a few because they’re likely to hit their listener limits around race time and if you can’t get on to one, you may be able to get on to another one.
Sport 927 Melbourne
2KY 1017 Sydney
ACTTAB Radio Canberra 88.7FM
As usual I’ll be providing results as they happen, and will have the full list of finishers from first to last as soon as it’s published (I’m usually ahead of the news websites and Channel Seven with that one!) so if you’re running a sweep and need that list to see who came last, don’t change the page, just refresh it!
If you’re betting today, good luck, and please bet with your head, not over it. If you need help with a gambling problem, give Lifeline Canberra a call on 13 11 14 or your local gambling helpline.
Samuel
November 4th, 2008 at 05:08am
Well here we are again, the year, when divided by four, produces an integer, and that means there’s a presidential election on the boil in the US.
It’s McCain/Palin vs Obama/Biden vs Barr/Root vs Nader/Gonzalez vs Baldwin/Castle vs McKinney/Clemente, although you could be forgiven for thinking that it’s merely a Republican vs Democrat race as they are the only candidates who seem to get any media or poll attention, which is probably fair enough considering that the rest are of almost no consequence to anything.
If the polls are anything to go by, then Barack Obama is likely to win, with the polls having Obama anywhere from a few percentage points to ten percentage points ahead of McCain. The Gallup Poll currently has Obama ten percentage points ahead, which is good for Obama considering that he has the Bradley effect to deal with, which historically shows that black political candidates do not do as well in the official results as the polls indicate, with the average difference being about five to seven percentage points. It could be argued that the Bradley effect, based on some polls, would be enough to see John McCain win on Tuesday.
Of course, whenever you talk about polls you have to consider that, as “statistically valid” as the polls may be, they aren’t a census, they can’t predict an “on the day change of mind”, they can’t tell the difference between the truth and a lie, and they almost invariably fail to predict the exact outcome of an election. The most important point there is that they aren’t a census and therefore do not count every person who plans on voting, and as such are always going to be somewhat tainted depending on the make-up of the sample group.
The other important point about polls is that, when we talk about polls, we usually talk about the larger, regularly-released polls, and forget entirely about the smaller polls. For example, radio station KXNT Las Vegas have been running a poll on their website for the last few days which so far has McCain/Palin leading Obama/Biden 90% to 4%. You may dismiss this as an unrepresentative poll skewed towards the general view of the demographic of the station, and you’d probably be right, except that the station has been receiving plenty of calls from people planning to vote for both sides, and you can be sure that they’re giving the poll results a good run on the air. With voting not being compulsory in the US, smaller polls like this can have a big impact. I believe that most publicised polls have an effect on some voters who seem to be somewhat sheepish in their voting habits, insofar as they hear poll results and vote accordingly. In a town like Las Vegas, a poll like the one being run by KXNT can have an impact, although measuring that impact would be quite difficult.
With the US being the world power that it is, the results of “who would you prefer to have as president of the United States?” polls from overseas also filter through to the US and have some impact. Interestingly I notice that 2GB’s poll along those lines is in favour of John McCain by 58% to 42% whilst callers to Open House with Sheridan Voysey last night were all tied up at 50% for both McCain and Obama.
Where am I going with this…basically I think that the result is going to be a lot closer than the large polls say it will be, and I wouldn’t be surprised if John McCain wins, and quite frankly I think the world would be better for it.
When it comes down to it, both John McCain and Sarah Palin are experienced political administrators, they both have put a considerable amount of effort in to fighting corruption, and they aren’t afraid to go against the views or wishes of their party if necessary. Probably more importantly, they both have an interesting amount of “real world” experience prior to becoming politicians.
On the other hand we have Barack Obama and Joe Biden, one of whom is a career academic who jumped to being a career politician, and the other is a career politician who almost jumped straight from academia to politics…thankfully he did at least try applying his studies to the real world before deciding that being a lawyer just wasn’t for him. It’s also unfortunate that he has a track record of peculiar outbursts and backflips.
If you don’t already know, I have a problem with career academics who think that they know what’s best for the world. These people almost invariably end up sitting at a desk with a large bookshelf behind them containing a significant percentage of books with their name on them despite the fact that they had no hand in writing them, growing the largest, most ungroomed beard possible, and releasing as many kooky statements based on flawed logic as possible to whichever media outlet will listen. The usual bit of flawed logic is their failure to understand that humans don’t behave as defined in a text book, and their belief (based on this flawed logic) that simply making a rule will solve some large complicated problem in humanity. There are some career academics who I have a lot of respect for, such as those who make advances in medical science, but I can’t stand those who end up doing almost nothing productive, and decide to waste their time and my taxes on their deranged theories that only distract us from important issues and research.
I have a similar aversion to career politicians. Much like their counterparts in the land of career academia, they have minimal, if any concept, of how the real world actually works, and have the strange delusion that they can make the world a better place simply by rising as far as possible up the political cherry tree.
You can probably see from that, at least part of the reason why I have an aversion to someone like Barack Obama who has gone straight from being a career academic to being a career politician. I just don’t see how anyone in that position can really understand what life is like for the vast majority of people who don’t work in either politics or academia, and therefore I fail to see how anyone in that position could really understand what’s best for the nation and for the public.
Of course, deciding to support a candidate based entirely on their background is a bad idea as their background is only a contributing factor. Another important factor is their current views, policies and objectives, and on the whole I agree with more McCain/Palin views, policies and objectives than I do Obama/Biden views, policies and objectives.
Not being in the US, it can be difficult to understand some of their issues thoroughly, so one of the ways to help me determine where I stand on the policies of the US candidates is to draw comparisons between US candidates and Australian politicians. Kevin Rudd can pretend until the cows come home that he is a conservative, or even a “fiscal conservative”, but it’s quite clear that he isn’t. He certainly isn’t as far to the left as Obama (although Jon Stanhope would be a closer match for Obama) but his cabinet is full of people who would be…and New South Wales has been enduring the wrath of a number of career politicians for quite some time. What a wonderful job this lot have all done, it’s talkfests, bungled financial rescues that make things worse, and imagined conversations with world leaders at the federal level, “an inquiry in to the results of the inquiry that we had in to the royal commission”, record revenue, crumbling infrastructure and on the brink of insolvency in New South Wales, and in the ACT it’s unwelcome major infrastructure projects involving dodgy Freedom Of Information document disclosure (or lack thereof), single-lane arterial roads, ever-changing budget figures and public artwork taking priority over education and health.
Is it any wonder that I don’t want the equivalent of that residing in The White House?
John McCain and Sarah Palin on the other hand…well the fact that I’ve voted for their equivalents in each election that I’ve been able to vote in probably says about all that I need to say on the matter. That said, I probably should add that, as far as I’m concerned, this country was humming along quite nicely at the federal level until last year’s federal election. It’s been slowly but surely going downhill since then…and why was Kevin Rudd elected instead of John Howard? As far as I can tell it was mainly due to a general view of “it’s time for a change”. That’s fair enough I suppose, we all need a change every now and then, and with the Australian system of “you can have as many terms as prime minister as the public are willing to give to you”, change effectively means radical change. Something which either works or fails miserably…sadly I think we’re having a helping of the latter.
I’m sensing a “time for change” mood in the US, and not surprisingly, both the McCain/Palin camp and the Obama/Biden camp claim to be the change that the country needs. When it comes to “time for change” moods, there usually isn’t a lot of hard evidence behind them, it’s more a matter of the natural human tendency to become tired of the same thing constantly.
Imagine for a moment that you’ve had Rice Bubbles for breakfast every day for the last eight years, you’re tired of it, and on November four you get to choose something else to have for breakfast for the next four years. The sensible thing to do would be to change to something else which is a breakfast food, such as another cereal, or perhaps toast or crumpets. It wouldn’t make sense to make a radical change such as making pumpkin soup or roast lamb and vegetables your breakfast for the next four years. The US public have the luxury of choosing a sensible change rather than a radical change, an it would be a great shame if they ignore that opportunity and then spent the next four years wondering why the roast lamb and vegetables didn’t uphold its promise of being a good breakfast.
This election also has the odd twist that both presidential candidates have a reasonable chance of not being able to serve their full term, John McCain due to his age, and Barack Obama due to the almost weekly assassination attempts which have, to-date, been thwarted, and as such the vice presidential candidate’s credentials as a possible president need to be considered.
Sarah Palin has experience (quite successfully) as a mayor and a state governor, so there’s no doubt in my mind that she would be able to handle another “top dog” role. She also appears to be quite happy to speak her mind and oppose her party when she believes that it’s necessary. She also seems to be very capable of “connecting” with people, which is very important when you’re in a position that requires you to explain things to the public constantly. In many ways I think she would be a better president than John McCain, although there are a few areas where John McCain has a clear advantage over Palin on experience and knowledge. If asked to step up to the plate, I’m sure Sarah will be able to handle the job quite well, although if she can be given four years to perfect it before running for president in 2012, it would probably do her the world of good.
Then there’s Joe Biden. Whilst I think he would do a better job of president than Barack Obama, I just get the distinct impression of him being America’s version of Mark Latham without the profile. From what I’ve seen, Biden’s most impressive characteristic is his ability to get to the point. He doesn’t suffer from the “talk and keep talking and go on and on and on without ever saying anything of substance” rhetoric ailment that many politicians, especially Obama, Rudd and Stanhope, suffer from. Unfortunately he also seems to have a bit of a hard time sticking to an opinion. Whilst his opinions may be firmer these days than they used to be (he wouldn’t want to repeat his backflip on the original gulf war), I prefer to know where I stand with a politician. Sure, everyone is entitled to change their mind, but if I vote for someone because they say that they believe in something, then I don’t want them to come out with the exact opposite view three years later and use that to enact a policy that I voted against. Unfortunately Joe Biden gives me that impression.
So, what will the final result be? I’m leaning towards a very narrow victory to John McCain and Sarah Palin, and I have more reasons that what I’ve already written, but the election will be over by the time I publish this if I keep writing…I suppose the general gist of the reasons is that I think a reasonable number of currently undecided voters will see the candidates in ways similar to the way I see them. Of course I do have another reason which is nowhere near as important as the fate of the US and the world for the next four years for supporting a McCain victory…Centrebet owe me $180 if McCain wins. When there are two horse races on Tuesday, one has 24 horses and the other has two, and the one with two horses is offering odds of $1.05 for one horse and $9.00 for the other one, it’s worth the gamble in my book. (Usual disclaimer: The golden rule of gambling is to only bet what you can afford to lose. If you need help with a gambling problem, contact Lifeline on 13 11 14 in the ACT, or your local gambling support service)
I’m not brave enough to provide an actual number for my prediction, just that I think it will be a 5% or less victory to John McCain. Somebody who is brave enough though is regular contributor (as long as I write something here) to this blog Padders, who has produced an entire state-by-state rundown of his prediction which sees McCain/Palin defeating Obama/Biden by 298 to 240 electoral college votes, or about 55% to 45% which would be a 10% victory to John McCain. I hope Padders is right, but I think it might be a tad closer than that. It will be interesting to see how it transpires.
And to that end, on Wednesday (Canberra time) I will be spending most of my day following the election results on the KXNT Las Vegas webstream, whilst flicking between various news websites and possibly having Nine’s coverage on in the background, and probably checking in on 2CC/2UE’s correspondents occasionally. Coast to Coast AM with George Noory is having an extended election coverage edition from 4pm to 9pm Canberra time which will probably be quite worthwhile listening to.
I have been spending a lot more time than usual listening to US talk radio lately, especially KXNT Las Vegas, and I’ve got to say that with the local media seemingly obsessed with the large polls (and, in the case of Nine News, ensuring that any crosses to a reporter at a McCain rally are of the reporter in an almost empty room where everything is being packed up), it’s been great to hear some sensible voices from the US such as Alan Stock, Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity. I also enjoyed my eight cent phone call to Alan Stock on Tuesday last week.
Well, I’ve had my eight cents worth and my 2610 words worth, now it’s up to the citizens of the US to decide. Regardless of the outcome, I think we’re going to see some interesting changes over the next four years…this election will merely decide which flavour and how radical those changes will be.
Samuel
November 3rd, 2008 at 04:41am
And as such, is not a sabbatical, although I will admit that “Blog Sabbatical” would be a snappier title.
I have to wonder if my absence was a mistake, especially considering the detrimental effect that it had on the ACT. Clearly missing my sound judgement and influence, Canberrans went mad and doomed themselves to four years with four Green Party MLAs in the Legislative Assembly wielding a dangerous “balance of power” sword. Perhaps if I had spent more time prior to the ACT election blogging and podcasting about the dangers of letting the Greens have any power then we wouldn’t be in this situation.
A tad egotistical? Well maybe, but when you consider the effect that I had on the ACT election when I decided to wield my influence, you would have to consider the evidence compelling. For example, I wrote about Labor candidate Mike Hettinger breaking a Labor promise and a mere handful of hours later, the Labor Party powerbrokers froze his campaign funding. He also failed to win a seat, quite possibly on the back of my noted disappointment that “Mike has decided to try to become part of a Labor government that he has previously accused of using policies which are against “core Labor values”.”
More of my influence could be seen at work in the election count when my number one preference, Liberal candidate for Molongolo Jeremy Hanson, secured a seat in the Assembly. My second preference, Liberal Leader Zed Seselja, also secured a seat, although the power of my influence on that one is debatable.
None the less, I did fail in my duty to “warn, warn and warn again” the Canberra public about the dangers of a Greens dominated government, and before I explain where I have been for the last little while, I shall take this opportunity to humbly apologise for my lack of warning in the leadup to the election. The detrimental effect of my absence is quite clear, and I’m sorry. I’m starting to think that my previous idea of organising a fill-in blogger during future absences would be a very good idea.
Anyway, the question of where I’ve been and what I’ve been doing has come up a few times during my absence, both in comments on this blog and in emails sent directly to me. There has been a fair bit on my plate recently. I have been back at work for a couple months or thereabouts, I’ve been volunteering at 1WAY FM since late August, primary as the panel operator for Open House with Sheridan Voysey and local weather presenter on Sunday nights, but also doing some production work, co-presenting/producing the ACT election coverage and filling in on the odd air shift. I’m also continuing my work with AIR News, albeit on a much reduced scale due to my personal time constraints…I may be about to increase my workload there if it fits in or around the rest of my schedule.
Ultimately, all of this has taken so much of my time and effort, and considering that I have delved in to all of this off the back off nearly burning myself out by working myself in to the ground, I have had to work out what the right balance of work and rest is again…enough so that I don’t go completely mad from not having enough to keep my active mind entertained, but not so much that I don’t have any time to unwind. Some of this involved a (not quite as) gradual (as it could have been) return to the rigours of work, although another important step was my conscious decision to return to the anti-depressants which, as much as the side-effects can be annoying, have been prescribed for a very good reason, and it’s quite clear to me that I struggle quite badly without them.
That, admittedly, is a very abbreviated version of the last few months, but it seems to sum it all up reasonably well.
For now, I’m back on the blog and will hopefully be back on Editorial Echoes shortly.
I have a written editorial on the US election which I’m working on at the moment, and I expect it to be online tomorrow. In the meantime, it’s great to be back, and I hope that you haven’t all missed me too much.
Samuel
November 2nd, 2008 at 07:51pm
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