Posts filed under 'Samuel’s Footy Tips'

Some NFL tips

This was going to form part of a Sunday Bits post, but I don’t have time to finish today’s Sunday Bits before kickoff as my work commitments won’t allow for it.

In today’s games I’m tipping Baltimore to defeat New England, and Seattle to defeat Carolina.

Tomorrow’s games: Green Bay to defeat Dallas, and Indianapolis to defeat Denver.

I really couldn’t decide on the Green Bay & Dallas game, so I went with the result of Glenn Beck’s Moron Trivia, which fills much of the second hour of his radio show on Fridays and involves calling random people in the places from which the teams in one of the weekend’s matches hail, asking them really simple questions (which many answer incorrectly) and deciding the winner of the match based on which location gave the most correct answers. It, surprisingly, has a decent strike rate. As I couldn’t decide on this match, I went with the result of Moron Trivia which gave Green Bay a decent victory.

I should note that these are the only games this weekend. In Australia they are all live on 7mate. In order of the games listed above, they start today at 8:30am and noon, and tomorrow at 5am and 8:30am. All times listed in AEDT.


January 11th, 2015 at 08:26am

NRL Tips: Round 7



April 18th, 2014 at 04:08pm

AFL Tips: Round 5

I’m doing this on my phone so I’ll just post the names of the teams I’m tipping…I’ll fix the formatting later.

North Melbourne
Port Adelaide
Gold Coast
Western Bulldogs


April 17th, 2014 at 07:38pm

NRL Tips: Round 6

For what it’s worth, I would have been wrong about both of last night’s matches if I had managed to get my tip in on time.

Panthers V Rabbitohs — tip not entered
Titans V Broncos — tip not entered
Raiders V Knights
Eels V Roosters
Tigers V Cowboys
Warriors V Bulldogs
Sea Eagles V Sharks
Storm V Dragons


April 12th, 2014 at 07:27am

AFL Tips: Round 4

It seems that I have missed the Friday Night game again. This time it was all because I went to have a nap yesterday afternoon and didn’t wake up until 4am!

Richmond V Collingwood — no tip entered
Carlton V Melbourne
Port Adelaide V Brisbane
GWS V Western Bulldogs
Geelong V West Coast
Gold Coast V Hawthorn
Sydney V North Melbourne
St. Kilda V Adelaide
Fremantle V Essendon


April 12th, 2014 at 07:23am

NRL Tips: Round 5

Having not put my tips in before last night’s matches, they are deemed to be an incorrect tip. The one exception to that rule is invoked on the Roosters V Bulldogs match though as I always tip the Bulldogs at all times and so for that match I am deemed to have tipped the Bulldogs.

Roosters V Bulldogs
Broncos V Eels — tip not entered
Sharks V Warriors
Panthers V Raiders
Dragons V Rabbitohs
Storm V Titans
Tigers V Sea Eagles
Cowboys V Knights


April 5th, 2014 at 12:54pm

AFL Tips: Round 3

Unfortunately I was out of action for a decent chunk of yesterday with a migraine and thus did not get my tips in before last night’s match. As per the rules, that match will be counted as an incorrect tip.

Hawthorn V Fremantle — no tip entered
Western Bulldogs V Richmond
Adelaide V Sydney
Gold Coast V Brisbane
West Coast V St. Kilda
Collingwood V Geelong
GWS V Melbourne
North Melbourne V Port Adelaide
Essendon V Carlton


April 5th, 2014 at 12:50pm

NRL Tips: Round 4

Roosters V Sea Eagles
Dragons V Broncos
Bulldogs V Storm
Warriors V Tigers
Eels V Panthers
Rabbitohs V Raiders
Knights V Sharks
Titans V Cowboys


March 28th, 2014 at 07:33pm

AFL Tips: Round 2

Richmond V Carlton
Essendon V Hawthorn
St. Kilda V GWS
Port Adelaide V Adelaide
Sydney V Collingwood
Fremantle V Gold Coast
Brisbane V Geelong
Melbourne V West Coast
Western Bulldogs V North Melbourne


March 27th, 2014 at 06:28pm

NRL Tips: Round 3

Tigers V Rabbitohs
Broncos V Roosters
Panthers V Bulldogs
Sharks V Dragons
Cowboys V Warriors
Sea Eagles V Eels
Raiders V Titans
Storm V Knights


March 21st, 2014 at 07:34pm

AFL Tips: Round 1 (week 2)

Geelong V Adelaide
North Melbourne V Essendon
Hawthorn V Brisbane
St. Kilda V Melbourne
West Coast V Western Bulldogs


March 20th, 2014 at 07:30pm

AFL Tips: Round 1, 2014 (week 1)

The AFL gets underway tonight with a split round where just over half of the round’s matches will take place next week. I’ll place my tips for next week’s matches next week.

Collingwood V Fremantle
GWS V Sydney
Gold Coast V Richmond
Carlton V Port Adelaide


March 14th, 2014 at 05:12pm

NRL Tips: Round 2, 2014

As I was out of the country last week for almost all of the first round of the NRL season, I decided not to put in any tips for the round as I hadn’t really spent any time examining the teams prior to the start of the round. Consequently my tips will start this week instead and will act as if round 1 didn’t exist.

Just like last year, points for my tips will be based on the winning margin of the match, so if I tip the winner then I will receive the amount of points by which they won, and conversely if I tip the losing team then I will lose the amount of points by which they lost. A mild change from last year is in effect in that I can no longer tip a draw, and a draw will count for no points whatsoever.

Sea Eagles V Rabbitohs
Broncos V Cowboys
Warriors V Dragons
Storm V Panthers
Roosters V Eels
Titans V Tigers
Knights V Raiders
Bulldogs V Sharks


March 14th, 2014 at 05:07pm

NRL Tips for the first week of finals, and thoughts beyond that

I was going to write a post similar to my AFL post summarising my thoughts on each team and what is likely to unfold through the finals, but as the NRL finals haven’t started yet, I just see too many uncertain matches and permutations for me to be able to figure out where everyone will be at each step. Instead, what I will do is put in some tips for this week, make a couple quick observations about the teams in the finals, and then come back with a more detailed look at the remaining teams next week.

Rabbitohs V Storm
This should be a very good match. Both teams are capable of playing very good football, but in tight situations I think the Rabbitohs are more likely to find a way to score, and the storm are more likely to produce a mind-numbing error. Back-to-back losses are rare for the Storm so I expect them to win in the 2nd week…and I’d certainly be tipping them if they lost last week.

Sharks V Cowboys
This was almost impossible to pick. The Cowboys have a heap of momentum having won their last six matches (including one victory over the Sharks), which is much better than any other team in the competition, but despite this I have been more impressed by Cronulla’s fairly consistent performances. The Sharks might not always win, but they always (since late July, at least) seem to put in a very good effort. I’d be willing to trust the Sharks’ effort over the Cowboys’ recent winning-streak, especially seeing as I don’t particularly like tipping the Cowboys after they have won a few games in a row, as they seem to have a habit of putting in a terrible performance after a string of good ones. That said, if the Cowboys win this match, they might turn out to be very hard to beat through the rest of the finals.

Roosters V Sea Eagles
Both of these sides are a nightmare to tip as you can never be sure whether they are going to have one of their good days or one of their bad days. I don’t think either side can win the grand final because I don’t think either side can consistently play well enough to get that far. This match could go either way and it wouldn’t surprise me, but I’m going with Manly because they lost last week and the Roosters didn’t.

Bulldogs V Knights
I’m a Bulldogs fan and I’d love to be able to tell you that I’m confident that the Dogs will win this, but truthfully I’m always slightly worried about games against Newcastle. The Dogs have been patchy this year and have lost to Newcastle twice, but with a small number of exceptions, the Knights have generally either won by a big margin or lost by a small margin this year which tells me that the Knights can’t usually maintain their intensity for a full match if the other side is competitive. I expect the Bulldogs to try a little bit harder this week seeing as it is a sudden-death final, and so I expect the Bulldogs to win by a small amount, but I also won’t be surprised if the Knights scrape home.

At the moment I’m expecting the Rabbitohs to win the grand final, but the Sharks and Cowboys are both good chances too. I don’t think anyone else can win.

If you are going to have a punt on the finals I’d suggest TAB NRL Finals betting. They currently have the Rabbitohs and Roosters $3.75 premiership favourites, and they don’t think the Sharks or Cowboys have much hope, $21 and $23 respectively. I might have to take them up on that. As for this week’s tips…well they seem to agree with everything except the Sea Eagles beating the Roosters.


September 12th, 2013 at 01:04am

Tips and thoughts for the AFL finals

For a few reasons I forgot all about submitting tips for the first week of the AFL finals last week, so instead of providing tips on a week-by-week basis, what I am going to do is analyse what remains of the finals by giving you my thoughts on the remaining teams and who I think is likely to wind up as the grand final winner of the 2013 AFL Premiership Season.

Geelong have surprised me throughout the year with some very good performances. I have not really thought their form was good enough to win as many matches as they did, and I was expecting them to fall apart late in the season, but they did not. They have been quite consistent and I shouldn’t underestimate them.

Geelong lost to Fremantle in the first week of the finals. I was surprised by this and put it down to a couple factors:
1. Geelong were playing their first ever home final. The moment got the better of them and they weren’t as focussed as usual.
2. Fremantle have been playing very well of late and reached the finals with a head full of steam. They simply had too much momentum for Geelong to match in the first week of the finals.

Geelong will play Port Adelaide on Friday night. Port have not played a Friday night match this year and have been in poor form for the last few weeks, and in my view only won on the weekend because Collingwood played terribly. As much as Port Adelaide have been a decent team this year, Geelong are a better side and will win, but won’t be able to overcome Hawthorn in the following week.

Port Adelaide
Port Adelaide are a very improved side this year, but they should not have won last week. In my view they only did so because Collingwood had a shocker. Port deserve to be in the finals, but will not win this week against Geelong.

Sydney have been consistent again this year in the main, but haven’t been quite as good as last year. They played poorly against Hawthorn last week, but that was partially because Hawthorn are simply a better side by a very big margin.

This week Sydney verse Carlton and, despite the fact that last week’s form (and even Sydney’s form in the last few weeks of the regular season) might indicate otherwise, I expect Sydney to rebound this week and to defeat Carlton. It won’t be a big victory, but they should win. After that Sydney will verse Fremantle for a spot in the Grand Final. Fremantle are in better form in my view and, with a combination of fresh legs from a week off for Fremantle and a tiring victory over Carlton for Sydney, Fremantle should knock Sydney out of the finals in the third week.

Carlton should not have reached the finals. They only got in because Essendon were prevented from being in the finals by a fairly peculiar decision, and Carlton had to make up the numbers in the top eight.

Carlton played well last week, but sometimes it feels like a team plays their “grand final effort” in a round of the finals and has nothing left the following week, and I think they did that last week. Carlton will be competitive against Sydney this week as Sydney are out-of-form in my view, but they won’t be able to beat Sydney.

Hawthorn have been impressive all year except for one very uncharacteristic loss to Richmond and an inability to beat Geelong. This should make for an interesting likely showdown between Hawthorn and Geelong in the third week of the finals.

I expect Hawthorn to finally defeat Geelong in week three of the finals as I’m not sure Geelong can be consistent enough to carry good form through that far, and Hawthorn will be freshly rested as should be too good for Geelong.

After this I expect Hawthorn to come up against Fremantle in the grand final. Hawthorn are a better side than Fremantle (or any other team in the competition for that matter) and I think Hawthorn will beat them (or anyone else).

Fremantle are, to me at least, the real surprise packet of the season. Port Adelaide have also been surprisingly good, but Fremantle have beaten them for consistency, and I have to give a lot of credit to coach Ross Lyon for this.

I expect Fremantle to meet Sydney in the third week of the finals. It is my view that Fremantle will be able to continue their great form in to this match, and Sydney will have used up too much effort in overcoming Carlton, so Fremantle will win this match and make their way through to the grand final.

I expect Fremantle to meet Hawthorn in the grand final. I believe Hawthorn are a class above Fremantle and should defeat Freo comfortably, but I would also have to admit that if anyone could challenge Hawthorn, it is Fremantle.

Hawthorn should defeat Fremantle, but if something goes awry before then and Fremantle verse someone else in the grand final, then Fremantle could win.

Final verdict
The grand final should be a contest between Hawthorn and Fremantle. Hawthorn should win this and I am tipping Hawthorn to be the winner of the 2013 grand final, however Fremantle should beat anyone else if Hawthorn don’t make the grand final for whatever reason.

That said, Hawthorn are my tip as 2013 AFL premiers.

If you’re considering betting on any of the AFL finals or on the premier, then make sure you check out TAB’s AFL Finals betting page. I see that at the moment they agree with me that Hawthorn and Fremantle are the most likely to win the grand final, offering $2.25 and $3.75 respectively.


September 11th, 2013 at 08:56pm

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