Archive for November, 2012

US Election 2012: The Samuel Perspective and Prediction

It’s funny how it almost seems like an eternity since the 2008 US election but it doesn’t seem like that long since the 2008 ACT Election. That could very well be simply due to the fact that in terms of awfulness, the Obama administration well and truly beats the Katy Gallagher government. That said, in some ways I think the 2008 election was one of the best things to ever happen to the US. That might seem like a contradiction, but I’ll explain.

In 2008 the US, much like many other western nations, was in the grip of a bit of a shift to the left of politics. Eight years of a Republican administration which saw a fair chunk of spending certainly didn’t help the Republican cause, and there was the global warming nonsense which was probably at the peak of its scare campaign as the data was almost at the tipping point of proving just how silly that whole thing was…none-the-less, it was one of the big reasons for the push to the left.

Of course there was also a financial crisis happening. A Financial crisis which was almost entirely set in motion by Democrat policies (The Community Reinvestment Act etc) which forced banks to lend money to people who simply could not afford it, and set in motion a series of events which led to the destabilisation of the derivatives market and the eventual collapse of large sections of the financial system.

That, plus the cult of Obama, helped Obama and the Democrats sweep to victory in 2008 with a radical socialist agenda which wasn’t fully advertised during the campaign, but was clearly visible in Obama’s history and was ignored by most of the media and even more of Obama’s supporters.

So, why was this one of the best things to ever happen to the US? Obviously it’s not because of the enormous damage which Obama and the Democrats have done to the US economy or the massive debt which they have clocked up. No, the reason it’s good is that it reinvigorated the principles upon which the US was built: that is free markets, small and constitutionally-limited conservative government, and the ability of individuals to succeed or fail on their own merits without the government interfering in the process.

In 2008, Mitt Romney ran for the Republican nomination for President. He was probably the most conservative of the bunch to do so. In 2012, he was one of the more moderate candidates, but he did something interesting and, rather than using the traditional Republican playbook of recent times and starting out conservative and then moderating, he started out on a fairly moderate footing by highlighting his time as Governor of Massachusetts, and then after securing the nomination went and explained his conservative ideas to the nation, and selected one of the heroes of the conservative cause as his running mate, congressman Paul Ryan.

In the intervening four years between 2008 and 2012, conservatives saw where Obama was taking the country and stood up for their beliefs, realising that if they didn’t, then America would not be the same country any more. Conservatives re-engaged in the political process and gave the Democrats and the left a big kicking in the 2010 mid-term elections. This slowed down the Obama administration and forced them to show their socialist ideals even more than they had previously. This vindicated the conservatives and energised them even more. This gave rise to a conservative campaign on the Republican side…one that wants to reduce the size and scope of government and return freedom to people.

Now, it’s November 2012 and the election is here. Conservatives are more energised than they have been in years. They want to take their country back…and I’ll say with confidence that I think they will succeed.

Most of the national polls suggest that the race between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama is neck-and-neck. I certainly believe that some of the races are that close, but on the national popular vote at least, I don’t think it is close at all. Most of the national polls are basing their figures on a polling method which over-samples Democrats. The reason for this is that they are using 2008 turnout figures, ignoring the fact that 2010 was vastly different, and every poll of voter enthusiasm shows that Republicans lead by miles.

The polls may say 50%-50% or 49%-49%, but I suspect that it’s closer to 53%-47% or 54%-46%. I’d be tempted to say the latter as I believe one of the biggest issues in this election campaign apart from Obama’s mishandling of the Economy and amazing deficit spending, is his utter dereliction of duty when it came to the Benghazi embassy attack. The battle between US troops and terrorist forces raged for hours, and yet Obama and his officials refused to provide support, even though they could see the whole thing unfold in real time. This was the October surprise…not Hurricane Sandy which was (as should happen) mostly handled by the states and had very little to do with Obama.

So, my prediction:

A Presidential candidate needs 270 Electoral College votes to win. These votes, for those who aren’t familiar with the system, are distributed based on which candidate wins in each state, with each state holding a certain number of these votes. It’s slightly more complicated than that, but that’s the basic gist of it.

I expect Mitt Romney will receive between 295 and 300 Electoral College Votes, and will therefore win easily. If I have to pick an exact number, I’ll go with 295.

I expect some of the early-to-report states such as New York will go to Obama, however I expect Mitt Romney to pick up the majority of the swing states. I also expect Pennsylvania will be early-to-report and will go to Romney. I expect the swing states to be close battles and for them to take a while to report an outcome, but I think Romney will win most of them. In particular, I’m predicting that Romney will win Ohio (albeit by a very narrow margin), New Hampshire (by a tad more), Floria, Virginia, Indiana, and I even rate him and chance in New Jersey and Wisconsin. Nevada is harder to call, but I expect Romney to do well there even if he doesn’t win.

I expect the early count to go Obama’s way, but as more of the swing states and the safe Republican states like Texas report in, I expect Romney to close the gap and then take the lead. I expect that it will be safe to call the race for Romney at some time between 11pm-12am Eastern (3pm-4pm Canberra time).

As for the house and senate races, I expect significant Republican gains in both. The Republicans should increase their lead in the House, and I expect them to gain ground in the Senate. It will be a tight race in the Senate and I’m confident of Republicans getting to 49 seats…I am however expecting them to get to 50 seats with Paul Ryan as Vice-President and therefore the head honcho (I forget the correct term) of the Senate giving Republicans control, and I’m not ruling out the possibility of Republicans getting 51 or 52 seats.

Back to Nevada for a moment, this is where I expect some really good results for Republicans in the House and Senate races. Romney might not win the state, but other Republicans should so well. I have high hopes for House candidates Danny Tarkanian and Joe Heck, and I think Senate candidate Dean Heller will oust incumbent Democrat Shelley Berkley and could very well be the Senator which makes it a Republican majority.

I have seen some interesting bits of analysis from others of how this will all turn out. Both campaigns were overly enthusiastic on the weekend, both claiming that they can get 350 Electoral College votes. That, of course, is fantasy land stuff, but is good for revving up the base and is a good “get out the vote” tactic.

In terms of real analysis, Curtis Sliwa, conservative talk show host in New York, is picking a 297 Electoral College victory for Romney. His map of this is available on the Electoral College mapping too 270 To Win. In terms of professional punditry, this is the most sensible analysis I have seen.

It’s a stark contrast to the highly amusing segment of NBC Today yesterday where their chief political correspondent Chuck Todd started with a map of the swing states which had Obama in front, and he then started moving the rest of the states out of Romney’s column and in to Obama’s column to show us all how high the numbers can go, and presumably what his delusional little mind really thinks will happen. It was funny, if nothing else.

In the Washington Examiner, Michael Barone thinks it will be a serious landslide with Romney winning 315 – 223. He expects Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to be among Romney victories.

The other really interesting bit of analysis is from the University of Colorado. Professors Ken Bickers and Michael Berry have put together a model which takes economic data and turns it in to an Electoral College prediction. When given the economic data for every Presidential election since 1980, it correctly calculates the outcome. Given data from this year, it is predicting that Romney will win 330 Electoral College votes. I think this is overly optimistic, but if it were to happen, it would not be unreasonable to also expect a massive majority to Republicans in the House and Senate as well.

Anyway, I expect that it will be a very interesting day. My plan, because I’m working this morning, is to keep an eye on Fox News and election data, and when possible keep an ear on talk radio. After work, which will be in the early afternoon, I will make my way home and continue this, except with the addition of some of the free-to-air TV coverage.

Fox News will be covering the election from 10am until 6pm Canberra time, with further coverage and analysis afterwards. Bret Baier will be one of the main anchors, which is fantastic as Bret is an awesome news anchor who manages to cut to the chase of a story very quickly and easily.

On free-to-air, 7two and ABC24 will be covering it from 10:30am until the early evening. Nine and SBS have coverage planned for the afternoon.

On the radio, my plans include
4am – 7am: Rush Limbaugh via WCBM Baltimore or 95.3 MNC South Bend
7am – 10am: Sean Hannity via WCBM Baltimore or 95.3 MNC. Serious exit polling should start to flow during Sean’s show.
10am – 1pm: Mark Levin via WABC New York, KCMO Kansas City
1pm – 5pm: My good friend and someone whose analysis I trust implicitly, Casey Hendrickson, will be covering the election live on 95.3 MNC South Bend
5pm – 9pm: Coast To Coast AM’s election analysis special with George Noory via 95.3 MNC South Bend or WOWO Fort Wayne.

I will also be covering the election on this blog and on Twitter. I’ll also have some extra stuff for my Facebook friends. To that end, I’ve fixed the Twitter feed in the sidebar of the blog, and I will do my best to keep you up to date with my analysis throughout the day.

It will be a very interesting day, and I can only say that it will be an absolutely glorious sight if the maps for the the House, Senate and Presidential races show giant seas of red. I certainly hope they do, for the sake of America and the world.


November 7th, 2012 at 03:48am

Melbourne Cup 2012: Results

Final update: 3:57pm
**Final dividends for Supertab and NSW TAB, plus the complete finishing order is is now online**

1st: 14. Green Moon Win: $22.50 Place: $7.40 (NSW: Win: $20.80 Place: $6.60)
2nd: 11. Fiorente Place: $11.80 (NSW: Place: $12.70)
3rd: 3. Jakkalberry Place: $16.00 (NSW: Place: $15.30)

Quinella: $506.90 (NSW: $533.50)
Exacta: $765.30 (NSW: $852.70)
Trifecta: $45,941.60 (NSW: $51,177.30)
Duet 11-3: $359.10 (NSW: $484.80)
Duet 14-11: $185.20 (NSW: $159.20)
Duet 14-3: $246.70 (NSW: $245.60)
First Four 14-11-3-24: $969,406.60 (NSW: $1,467,099.60)

Finishing order of all 24 horses
1st: 14. Green Moon
2nd: 11. Fiorente
3rd: 3. Jakkalberry
4th: 24. Kelinni
5th: 8. Mount Athos
6th: 13. Glencadam Gold
7th: 16. Mourayan
8th: 4. Red Cardeaux
9th: 21. Precedence
10th: 17. My Quest For Peace
11th: 2. Americain
12th: 7. Cavalryman
13th: 6. Voila Ici
14th: 1. Dunaden
15th: 18. Niwot
16th: 10. Lights Of Heaven
17th: 5. Winchester
18th: 9. Sanagas
19th: 15. Maluckyday
20th: 12. Galileo’s Choice
21st: 22. Unusual Suspect
22nd: 23. Zabeelionaire
23rd: 19. Tac De Boistron
Last: 10. Ethiopia

My Tips
Not too bad I suppose. First and last is an interesting result.
I picked:
14. Green Moon (Finished 1st)
2. Americain (Finished 11th)
10. Ethiopia (Finished last)

Obviously I didn’t win the quinella or the trifecta, but with those odds the win and place paid reasonably well. I hope your tips went well.


November 6th, 2012 at 03:09pm

Tips for the 2012 Melbourne Cup

After picking the winner in 2010 and returning to my normal form of not selecting a horse in the top three last year, this year I’m at it again. My tips this year are:
2. Americain
10. Ethiopia
14. Green Moon

I don’t have to work during the race this year and thus will be able to bring you my usual coverage of the results and the complete finishing order.

If you have a tip in the race, I wish you all the best of luck.

The race will be broadcast nationally on television on the Seven Network, and many local radio stations will also be covering the race, however if you can’t be near a TV or a radio, there are a couple webstreams which might be of use. RSN (previously Sport 927) in Melbourne’s webstream can be found here, and Sky Racing Radio (formerly 2KY) can be found here. ACTTAB Radio in Canberra relays RSN, their webstream is here. Alternatively a search in your preferred mobile app such as TuneIn Radio for any of those stations should get you to the correct webstream.


November 6th, 2012 at 04:37am


November 2012

Posts by Month

Posts by Category


Blix Theme by Sebastian Schmieg and modified for Samuel's Blog by Samuel Gordon-Stewart.
Printing CSS with the help of Martin Pot's guide to Web Page Printability With CSS.
Icons by Kevin Potts.
Powered by WordPress.
Log in