In today’s video I have a look at the poor strike rate of the top pick in Sky Racing’s rating system, and how the ANZ Bot can be set to profitably lay these selections by using the ANZ Ratings.
ANZ Bot
https://redirect.samuelgs.com/anzhorseratings.htm
Samuel
Add comment November 27th, 2024 at 09:11pm
Given Nice Mr. Donald’s victory this week (I’ll analyse my prediction tomorrow now that it looks like the final states have been decided at last) I thought I’d go back to 2016 and something quite perplexing at the time.
Hugh Hewitt for those of you who don’t know (and I wouldn’t blame you at all for not knowing) is possibly the most boring presenter in all of talk radio…actually no I take that back, there’s a bloke who used to fill in for someone who was much more boring but I can’t remember his name. Hugh is actually quite a nice person, it’s just that he puts together a complete snorefest of a show across the Salem Radio Network.
Hugh worked in the Reagan administration and found his way into talk radio at some stage after that. He is a perplexing character in some ways as he seems to personally be a quite conservative person but suffers from the same affliction as many traditional Republican politicians in that he advocates for conservative ideals until he hits any resistance from the other side and then wants to compromise. This is largely what led to Republican voters embracing Trump in 2016 as he advocated for a lot of their positions and didn’t seem to care about backlash.
Anyway, like most traditional Republicans in 2016, Hugh wasn’t much of a fan of Donald Trump. Every day after Trump secured the nomination it seemed that Hugh changed his mind on whether to support him or not. I considered him to be a good barometer on the support Trump could expect from rusted-on Republican voters as they always had the option to just not vote. Eventually Hugh got behind Trump finally and permanently based on Trump’s list of people he would consider appointing to the Supreme Court as Hugh recognised the Supreme Court and the many Federal Court positions Trump would fill would be of great benefit for conservative politicians for decades to come even if the achieved absolutely nothing else in office.
After Trump won the election and prior to him taking office, Hugh started playing a song every single day as a message to Trump. For a very very boring show, it was extremely surprising, not only because Hugh’s enthusiasm for the song was out of step with the general tenor of his show, but because the song isn’t one you’d expect to find anywhere on the AM dial under any circumstances.
Hugh’s advice to Trump from the song was the “drive it [the presidency] like you stole it”. In other words, just go at getting as much done as possible because you only have a very limited amount of time to do it. While, in 2024, given what happened in 2020, we probably don’t want to offer a president-elect advice about treating the presidency as if it was stolen, I expect Hugh’s sentiment is the same today as it was back then, and Trump’s sentiment certainly appears to be that way. It should be noted Hugh was very pleased by Trump’s efforts to get things done in his first terms and how he seemed to get a lot more done than most Republicans do, so Hugh is firmly behind Trump this time around without any hesitation.
Back to the song. It’s a catchy tune and one worth sharing. I was certainly reminded of it this week.
Samuel
1 comment November 10th, 2024 at 07:27pm
It’s election day in the US, or what I hope will be a very happy Orange Man Day!
To that end, my Electoral College prediction map (created via Real Clear Politics’ map generator) and I have decided to change the Republican red to Trump Orange.
I’m hoping that tomorrow’s predicted showers in Canberra jump forward just a tad into this evening. Back in 2016, Donald Trump gave his speech at around 7:30pm (about 3:30am in New York) and as soon as he finished, Canberra’s sky turned orange and it started to rain. It’s said that a shower is a sign of a blessing so I took it as a sign that the orange man was a blessing on the world. One certainly hopes for a great bigly orange blessing for the world today!
Samuel
1 comment November 6th, 2024 at 10:55am
It’s always a tough race to pick, and it was a fantastic run and ride by Knight’s Choice and jockey Robbie Dolan to get there. I’m pleased that the horse I said couldn’t win based on my settings in the ANZ Analyser, the well-fancied Buckaroo didn’t win. The lay bet there made up a bit of the mess that was the rest of my tips…although it has to be said Zardozi was looking good about 300m out.
1st: Knight’s Choice. Some extraordinary prices too. Betfair SP: $268.01 | VOP: $91 | Tote: $63.50
2nd: Warp Speed
3rd: Okita Sushi
4th: Zardozi – my outsider tip
5th: Absurde
6th: Circle Of Fire
7th: Fancy Man
8th: Land Legend
9th: Buckaroo – the one I said couldn’t win
10th: Kovalica
11th: Vauban – my 2nd selection
12th: Onesmoothoperator – my top tip
13th: Valiant King
14th: Sea King
15th: Interpretation
16th: Sharp N Smart
17th: Trust In You
18th: Mostly Cloudy
19th: Manzoice
20th: Positivity
21st: The Map – didn’t meet Analyser backing criteria
22nd: Saint George
23rd: Just Fine
Samuel
Add comment November 5th, 2024 at 04:51pm
Happy Melbourne Cup Day!
I’ve put together my tips and some race broadcast information for you in this video, and a summary below.
My top tip is 13. Onesmoothoperator. Having won the Geelong Cup very nicely at the last start and being in good form, I like the chances of this horse very much. The distance does concern me a bit, being 800m longer than the Geelong Cup, but the 3200m distance of the Melbourne Cup is a bit of a question mark for every runner so I’m not too worried about it.
I also like 1. Vauban which is a proven quality horse, but is carrying an awful lot of weight this time around so I fancy this one to run a place but would be surprised if it wins, and 14. Zardozi is my outside chance as a strong performer over long distances, but it has been well over 200 days since the last win so it’s not a certainty by any means.
My favourite ANZ Analyser system didn’t quite find anything to back which is hardly surprising in such a large field with such wildly different forms. The closest it came to making a selection was 23. The Map which met the criteria for the jockey/trainer combination being very good and is not liked by Sky Racing’s ratings which is good sign, but fell a fair bit short on form ratings.
The ANZ Analyser did pick a horse to lay. 2. Buckaroo which is the top of the Sky Racing ratings. It’s a lay as long as it is paying $4 or more. Currently it’s at $7 so it meets the lay criteria.
Broadcast details
TV and streaming
Another year, another change in broadcast rights. TAB Corp bought the master rights this time around in an effort to limit the amount of advertising their gambling rivals could air during the telecast. The deal makes Sky Racing the host broadcaster and the world feed producer, but also required them to involve one of the major free to air networks.
Nine is the primary free to air broadcaster this year and for the next few years. Note that Seven is running Sydney races and it would be easy enough to accidentally tune into their horse racing coverage and miss the race, so be sure not to tune in to Seven for the Cup by mistake. Of course Nine, as the main free to air broadcaster, is a bit more interested in the fashions than the sport, so if you want more analysis of the racing you might want to look elsewhere.
Sky Racing has coverage on Sky 1. This is available on Foxtel, Kayo, the TAB website and app, the apps of most of the corporate bookmakers, and on the screens of just about every pub and club in the country.
Racing.com, the channel owned by Racing Victoria has been granted limited broadcast rights. They are allowed to air the race on their free to air channel (68 or 78 depending on your location) as it is a relatively low bitrate SD service, and via their website in HD. They have to black out the race on their Foxtel, Kayo and 7plus services however as these are seen as being in direct competition with Sky and Nine’s services.
International broadcasts (the race is at 4am UTC):
The racing.com stream (requires free registration) might work overseas in some locations
New Zealand: Trackside 1 (5pm NZ time)
UK: Sky Sports Racing (4am UK time)
USA: FanDuel TV (11pm ET)
An interesting thing about FanDuel TV is that in addition to a TV channel it has a stream which seems to not be geoblocked. So this is probably an option globally.
Radio
If you can’t get to a screen but still want to follow the race, the radio is a good option.
The National Racing Service comprising Sky Sports Radio, RSN, RadioTAB and TABradio has stations in just about every town in the country. You can find your local frequency via the Sky website for most of the country or for Western Australia on the TABradio website. These can also be streamed in Australia and overseas via those websites.
Nine Radio is taking the official call with Matt Hill on 2GB Sydney, 3AW Melbourne, 4BC Brisbane and 6PR Perth. Nine is also the syndication partner for the official call and is providing it to dozens of commercial stations across the country, so there’s probably at least one where you are.
SEN has its own coverage with a call by Gerard Whateley on almost all of the SEN and SEN Track stations. A list of stations can be found here. They can also be streamed via their website and app.
And ABC Radio has coverage on many ABC Local Radio stations, plus ABC Sport on DAB+, the ABC website and the ABC Listen app.
Ultimately, if you scan the dial shortly before the race you’ll almost certainly find at least one or two stations covering the race.
It is a wonderful day on the Australian sporting calendar. I wish you every success with it!
Samuel
Add comment November 5th, 2024 at 10:28am
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