Archive for March, 2024

The Sunday Share: This time you can see the actual band members

In recent weeks I have shared with you some videos of Weezer covering various songs while being impersonated by other people in the video clips. This week, for the last Weezer clip I will be sharing with you, the band will actually appear!

This is another cover which I prefer over the original. Pumped Up Kicks, originally by Foster The People. Unfortunately Weezer have never officially released a cover of this song and I wish they would, so a video from one their concerts where they have performed it will have to do. This one, despite Rivers Cuomo seemingly forgetting the words, is probably the best quality of the concert videos in terms of the performance combined with picture quality.

And that is where we leave Weezer for now.


Add comment March 31st, 2024 at 06:42am

Lots of fans, both here and in the maze of David Jones

Yesterday I had a dream that I was back in a previous workplace and I found out there was going to be a national power outage, so I had to run the generator to keep the power on at work.

I went up to the generator room (which looked like a larger and emptier version of one of the air conditioning plantrooms at the Canberra Centre) and started the generator but it wouldn’t get up to speed due to what it claimed was an insufficient airflow. So I went and found as many industrial size fans as I could and set them to blow on the generator to provide it with airflow. I had set up a dozen and was happy with that but thought it could use a few more to be on the safe side, and went away to find some. When I came back, the fans I had previously setup were missing and I found out that my present-day boss had sold them to the department store David Jones. So I went to David Jones to get the fans back but the store was a large maze and it was difficult to find the manager.

Meanwhile, I received a communication from an evil spirit which required my permission to pass through my property as a shortcut rather than going the long way around. I granted permission as long as it didn’t stop on my property, so it went through with a dozen other evil spirits and I had to contend with all manner of peculiar objects chasing me including a floating alligator-elephant thing which wanted to recite strange poems at me.


1 comment March 27th, 2024 at 03:06pm

What are we being distracted from today?

A good rule of thumb when there is a news story dominating the media despite being of little importance or relevance to the overwhelming majority of the audience is to look around and see what else is happening. Usually, when one story is blown out of all proportion and dominates the news for no good reason, there are other far more important stories which are getting a slither of coverage but not enough for most people to notice, and so most people are successfully distracted from seeing the stories which matter.

Today seems to be one of those days.

There dominant story in the news is about a bridge which collapsed in Baltimore. This is undoubtedly an important story locally in the Baltimore area. The fact a handful of people are missing and might be dead probably makes it worthy of some amount of national coverage in the US. Elsewhere in the world it really deserves no more than a few lines in the papers, and maybe a cursory mention near the end of TV and radio news bulletins. It is a story of no relevance to most of the world outside of Baltimore. And yet, from the moment it happened, it has been THE story dominating just about every news outlet in the western world. A stark difference from when the Gungahlin Drive Extension bridge collapsed here in Canberra and it barely rated a mention outside of Canberra. Unfortunately this distraction technique in the media works, as if you listen to people discussing news stories while they go about their day, primarily this is the story they are discussing even though it makes no difference to their lives whatsoever. Sadly most people will uncritically take whatever mainstream news says is important as being what is important.

So, what else is happening? Well, two stories seem to be of particular importance but are receiving minimal coverage.

Firstly, a few weeks ago I noted the crazy circumstance where Julian Assange couldn’t just appeal his extradition to the United States but instead had to plead for permission to appeal. Well, convenient timing, the UK High Court last night announced that they will grant Mr. Assange this permission, but only if the United States fails to assure them that they won’t impose the death penalty if the extradition is granted, and even then only make an appeal on the basis that he might not get a fair trial in the United States if the US courts fail to accept foreign nationals are subject to first amendment (free speech) protections. Meanwhile Mr. Assange sits in a British jail for even longer.

This story is far more important than a bridge collapse as it fundamentally revolves around the rights of people to find out things which governments might prefer be kept a secret. A society where people are punished for exposing that governments might be doing something bad is a terrifying prospect indeed.

Another important story is some weirdness going on with GPS systems. It is claimed that more than 1,600 aeroplanes across Europe have suffered from some sort of GPS outage. The official spin on this is that it’s Russia’s fault, with basically no evidence to back this up other than “they might be capable of it”. It seems more likely to me to be a result of the severe solar storm which has been hammering Earth’s atmosphere over the last week or so.

Our reliance on technology, and in particular satellite technology for communications and navigation, is a particular concern when solar storms (or cyber warfare) can knock out systems for short or long periods of time. Indeed, as we enter a more active solar cycle, with more reliance on such technologies than we had the last time the sun was particularly active, it is worth considering what backup plans you have in place should a large solar storm knock out communications to some extent. A Carrington-level event could even knock out power for a while. I’m in my mid-30s and I know I would struggle if most technology went away for a few days, but at least I’m old enough to remember a time before modern technology ran just about everything; I shudder to think how the young’uns would handle such an event. Navigating by paper map would be a trial for many.

There’s probably more news of importance than those two things I’ve highlighted but that is what has caught my attention so far. Good luck finding important information on the 6pm news though. Dig deeper. Much much deeper.


1 comment March 27th, 2024 at 02:56pm

The moon and the eclipse

It is my pleasure to announce that, after a sky mouse decimated the supply of moon cheese during the night, the moon cows worked overtime and the moon cheese is now back at full capacity.


1 comment March 26th, 2024 at 06:23am

The Sunday Share: We must translate for our Swedish friends

All I can say is: thank goodness ABBA had a good grasp of the English language and didn’t have to rely on dodgy automated translations.

Somehow I don’t think predictions about future digital video technologies or all-seeing wifi would have been received quite as well by the public. Brexit predictions at Eurovision would have been bold indeed!


Add comment March 24th, 2024 at 07:30am

A soccer strategy looking at the correct score market

A few people have been asking when I would have a soccer strategy ready to publish, well here it is.

I fiddled with it for a little while before arriving at these settings, which have now been in place for two weeks, and I’m pleased to say there has been some fairly steady profit.

For the first week or so I had it running on a 50c base stake and it produced a profit of about $16.
Week 1 graph

For the second week when I had more confidence in it, I increased the base stake to $2.50 in a balance of $100. It generated $50 of profit. Impressively there was only one loss in this period.
Week 2 graph

If we put both periods together and look at how running at a $2.50 base stake over the entire period would have looked, it would have generated $130.
Combined graph

This is using the LayPro88 Football Bot and is placing lay bets on the favourite in correct score market, if the home team is heavily favoured to win and the favourite in the correct score market is paying between $5.00 and $7.80, as long as the favourite score is not 1-1 (which is unlikely anyway if the home team is strong favourite to win). Full details of this can be seen in the video, along with how I’m managing multiple tabs to boost the potential profits from the strategy. However it would also work with just one tab running, perhaps with lower profit, but also lower risk, and so I have details on how I would suggest setting that up in the video too.

Hopefully this has been worth the wait. I know a few people have been eager to see this released.


1 comment March 21st, 2024 at 08:27am

My condolences to Kevin Bartlett

It was announced this morning that Denise Bartlett, the wife of legendary AFL figure Kevin Bartlett, had died.

Denise and Kevin Bartlett - source 7news
(Denise and Kevin Bartlett. Image credit: 7News)

Denise had been unwell for a few years and it was clear that this had been taking a toll on Kevin, who is widely regarded as one of the nicest people in AFL circles.

Kevin Bartlett was a legendary player for the Richmond Tigers and later became a commentator, calling many games for Seven throughout the 1990s and Fox Sports after that. He also called football on radio for SEN where he was the long-time host of the morning show Hungry For Sport, a play on his nickname “Hungry” from his playing days. In more recent years Kevin moved to 3AW as a commentator, but when Denise fell ill, Kevin took a step back from commentary to look after her, which was a great loss to football. On the odd occasion that Kevin did return to the airwaves, it was clear that his wife’s struggles were taking a toll on him too.

Kevin and Denise had been married for 54 years. She was as well-regarded around the Richmond football club as Kevin himself. While football had been Kevin’s life for the most part, Denise was his rock.

I’m sure that Kevin has many wonderful memories of Denise, and I hope that these memories can bring him comfort at this time.


Add comment March 19th, 2024 at 05:26pm

Australian Federal Police strike action paves useful precedent for speed camera protests

Here in Canberra, just as in many other parts of the country, there are speed camera vans which can be setup in a wide variety of locations to measure the speed of passing vehicles and issue speeding fines. Here, these are operated by ACT Government employees unlike some other jurisdictions where the operation is outsourced to private contractors. The ACT’s vans are white and have a retractable sign on the roof which states “your speed has been checked” but are otherwise fairly unremarkable vehicles.

I am strongly opposed to the existence of these, partially because I believe most speed limits should be abolished, but moreso because I believe they deny natural justice by:
1. Removing the element of discretion from the enforcing officer
2. Making it impossible for the driver to know with any certainty whether a fine will be issued, as the fines take weeks to be issued and delivered, thus removing some of the driver’s ability to contemporaneously collect and preserve evidence for their defence
3. Reverse the onus of proof, by requiring the registered owner of the vehicle to prove that they either weren’t speeding (practically impossible if they don’t have the opportunity to collect evidence at the time) or they weren’t the driver involved; in a society where a person is supposed to be presumed innocent until proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt, there are grave problems with the processes of the speed camera van system.

There is also an issue that is not confined to the speed camera vans but more broadly of the infringement notice system which is used by the speed camera vans among other government agencies, that the receiver is coerced into accepting the fine rather than defending it in court by virtue of the infringement notice fine being substantially less than a court could impose. It is effectively a coercive tool to make people admit guilt by offering them a smaller punishment, and for many people it is simpler to just admit guilt, even if they don’t believe they were guilty, rather than go through the process of defending the charge when the system will effectively treat them as guilty until proven innocent.

I also believe that the speed cameras are not an effective road safety tool as they don’t do anything to correct driver behaviour at the time of the offence. In my view, only police officers should be able to conduct speed enforcement as they have the authority to stop a driver at the time, something which the speed camera vans can’t do, and police also have the ability to exercise discretion based on the circumstances at the time. I believe that speeding fine should only be able to be issued if police detect a driver to be speeding, and then make a reasonable effort to intercept the driver.

A couple years ago I decided to make my position on this matter known. Apart from writing a submission (which was largely ignored) to an ACT Legislative Assembly inquiry into road safety, I also had a sign produced.

Abolish Speed Cameras sign

When I saw a speed camera van and had the time to do so, I would set up an impromptu protest near the speed camera van, where I stood there waving the sign about. This received an overwhelmingly positive response from passing motorists.

Originally, and this is starting to get the point of why I’m writing this today, I was setting up somewhere in the line of sight of the speed camera van, partially obscuring the camera’s view of traffic. On the second occasion of this, the speed camera van operator called the police and they attended. The police officer asked me to leave the area. The ACT has a Human Rights Act which, among other things, protects the right to peaceful demonstration, so I wasn’t going to leave without the police officer providing a very good reason as to why they thought I had to do so. The police officer claimed that I was breaking the law by “hindering a territory official” which is quite a stretch considering that law was really designed to allow emergency services to go about their business without being obstructed, not to protect bureaucrats sitting in vans, and given I was not interacting with the speed camera van operator or preventing them from operating their equipment, it was unlikely that such a charge would hold up in court. However, it was likely that the police officer would take me into custody if I didn’t oblige and move on, so I moved on.

It’s also worth noting that if merely being in the line of sight of the camera between it and passing vehicles could be said to meet the criteria of “hindering a territory official” then every driver of a vehicle in the lane closest to the speed camera would be contravening this law by blocking the view of a further away lane.

Furthermore, the Human Rights Act’s protection of the right to peaceful demonstration applies unless a law specifically prohibits the activity. Standing somewhere with a sign is not an illegal activity unless a prohibition zone is created, which is what was done by the ACT Government in the streets near the abortion clinic in the city. It was necessary for the government to specifically list the areas in which protesting abortion were to be illegal in order to overcome the Human Rights Act. There is no legislation to create a prohibition zone in the vicinity of a movable object such as a speed camera van, so really, it was an empty threat to charge me with “hindering a territory official”.

Regardless, to ease tensions and keep the peace, on future occasions I moved my protests across the road from the speed camera vans, or occasionally opposite their headquarters in Hume at their shift changeover, so that I would not be in their line of sight of traffic. The speed camera van operators (apart from one) still don’t like it and I have even had one stop doing their work of their own volition to take photos of me and threaten legal action, but obviously what I am doing is perfectly legal and should be perfectly legal in a democratic nation, so nothing has come of it.

What brings all of this up at this point in time is that the Australian Federal Police, who provide police services to Canberra among other things, are about to embark on strike activity. They won’t be walking off the job as such, but will engage in various activities, one of which caught my attention as being relevant to my activities.

Union members voted on 36 potential actions which range from putting slogans on AFP vehicles and uniforms and blocking mobile speed vans, to not attending court matters, not transporting alleged offenders, and not investigating any referrals to the AFP from the offices of politicians where no offence has been committed.

Blocking mobile speed vans. In other words, demonstrating in a place which will block the view of a speed camera van. The very activity which they threatened to charge me over. There is no difference from a legal standpoint between them demonstrating for better pay and conditions in front of a speed camera van, and me demonstrating against speed cameras in front of a speed camera van. The only potential legal difference is that police officers have special powers not afforded to civilians, however the wording of the proposed strike action makes it clear that the officers are not considered to be working whenever they conduct their strike activity, so it cannot be argued that they are using special powers available to police officers at such a time.

The exact wording of the proposed action, as notified to the Fair Work Commission, is slightly less clear than what the writer of the news article has interpreted it to mean

21. The indefinite or periodic interruption of work for members to park police vehicles in front of speed cameras, at school zones and any Australian Federal Police related Government facility while displaying emergency lights.

It was suggested to me that “in front of speed cameras” could mean they’re a little down the road and slowing passing motorists with their flashing lights before the motorists would reach the speed camera. If this is the case, it is still a useful precedent for my activities as my current across-the-road approach tends to slow down traffic as it passes, which is exactly what the police strike action would do. Given the stated aim of the speed camera program is to reduce the speed of motorists, it is impossible to argue that my actions or those of the striking police officers are “hindering a territory official” when the actions in fact help them to reach their stated aim.

Regardless of how exactly the strike action plays out, the precedent set by the proposals alone is enough to confirm what I have believed all along. It is perfectly legal within the ACT to protest near a speed camera van, regardless of the reason for the protest, unless it happen to be a protest against abortion within a couple blocks of Moore Street in the city. So waving an “abolish speed cameras” sign is A-OK!


Add comment March 19th, 2024 at 05:11am

When actors get the blueberries in Go-Lo, there will be indoor skiing

The other day during my sleep I had a dream that I had taken a job as an actor. I was supposed to play a doctor in a rural town and the filming was to take place in a town about ten hours drive from Canberra. Of course, I am not an actor, so I was hoping that the people in charge didn’t notice my distinct lack of acting skills.

I drove to this remote town with one of the other actors and they spent most of the trip reading their lines from a very small notebook. After we arrived in the town there was a meeting of everyone involved in the filming, and I read through a larger notebook containing my lines, but paid no attention to the meeting so I missed all of the details about the filming schedule.

I then went to the only store in town, which was a very large version of a Go-Lo store (which used to be a discount store with many hundreds of outlets across Australia) which had floor tiles which looked like an Aldi store. There was a wall of discount blueberries, half in small size and the other half in large size. They were very tasty so I decided to buy some, however as the store was very large, it was recommended that customers wear skis so they could travel through the store more quickly. I started skiing towards the checkouts however ended up at the other end of the store in the high speed aisle and found myself doing laps of the store at 80km/h while all the paths to the checkouts were blocked so I was required to just continue circling the store on skis while eating blueberries!


2 comments March 18th, 2024 at 11:02pm

The Sunday Share: Take On Me

The last time we saw Weezer a couple weeks ago, we didn’t actually see them because they weren’t in their own video clip, instead having other people parody them. I sense a theme here because this week, once again, they’re not in their own video clip.

Instead, we’re taking a trip back in time through the magic of acting, and meeting Weezer’s lead singer’s teenage band as they perform the big hit of the day, A-Ha’s Take On Me.

As it happens, I actually prefer this rendition of the song over the original. The original is an irreplaceable classic, of course, but this one makes me want to turn the volume up and hear it a few more times in a row!
(You, of course, are free to not do that if it is not your desire…)


1 comment March 17th, 2024 at 07:17am

Radio for the opposite of an insomniac

Going back through some of my notes, I came across this dream I had in 2018 about a rather unusual concept in radio programming.

There was a show called “Snoring away the snooze-o-grams”. The show consisted almost entirely of people snoring with only occasional interruptions for commercial breaks. The show was said to be very popular with advertisers as they saw it as a way around the laws against subliminal advertising!


1 comment March 15th, 2024 at 03:45am

Tips and tricks for getting the most out of betting bots

As is probably obvious by now, I am using a few betting bots produced by Steve and Michael. Over time using them I have developed a few habits and routines to keep them running at their best and most efficient. I thought it was worth creating a bit of a guide on some of the things I do to keep the bots running optimally.

The video covers everything from preventing Windows Update from interrupting 24/7 bot operations until I’m ready for them to run, managing memory usage to keep bots running quickly, using the tabs in ways which enhance profitability, and keeping archives of results without needing to keep them loaded in the bots, and some other bits and pieces which I find helpful.

The Windows Update Blocker utility which I’m using to give me complete control over when Windows Updates get to run is a free utility from Sordum. I cannot emphasise enough that you should NOT use this to prevent Windows Updates from running completely, but rather only to prevent them from running at inconvenient times. Windows Updates are an important function on any Windows-based computer for maintaining security.

If you’re comfortable using Windows Group Policy or the Windows Registry Editor and you have a professional version of Windows 10 or 11, or a server edition of Windows, Windows Central has a guide on how to manage Windows Updates through those methods without needing a third-party utility. This is probably a better method than the Windows Update Blocker utility, but it doesn’t work on home editions of Windows and I have seen Windows ignore it occasionally if it thinks the update it wants to install is particularly important.

And the bots I’m currently running and are featured in the video, although my hints and tips apply more broadly to more bots than just these.

ANZ Horse Bot
Fav Money Staking Bot
Lay Grey Bot
Lay Pro Football Bot

Hopefully these tips can help you in some way.


2 comments March 12th, 2024 at 09:15pm

The Sunday Share: Another trip to Africa

We’re off to Africa again this week. Unfortunately something went awry in translation so it’s not entirely clear where we’re going, but at least the catering is good, well, some of the time…


Add comment March 10th, 2024 at 07:13am

David Morrow has retired

Some very sad news went through Australia’s sporting and media worlds a few weeks ago as sports commentator David Morrow announced he has been diagnosed with brain cancer, will not return to the airwaves for this year’s rugby league season, and is retiring. While David has commentated just about every sport you can name over his decades of broadcasting, he undoubtedly leaves the biggest hole in the rugby league world where he has been a consistent high-profile voice of the game on radio, bringing the passion and excitement of the game to people right across the country and indeed the world.

David’s career spans something in the order of 50 years or more, and while he has called most Australian professional sports at one time or another, he is best known for his work as a rugby league commentator. Most of this was at the ABC where he was one of their leading rugby league commentators until he became the victim of a technical error and a subsequent bureaucratic farce, which led him to move to 2GB’s Continuous Call Team in 2015 where he became their main commentator. I recall at the time of the ABC peculiarities, 2UE was a competitor to 2GB and had rugby union broadcast rights, and I mentioned to then-Drive host Jason Morrison that 2UE should hire David. As it turned out, after David moved to 2GB, 2UE came under the same ownership as 2GB and became “Macquarie Sports Radio” for a while where David spent some time commentating cricket, so I suppose he was hired by 2UE in a roundabout way.

David joined the ABC in 1980 and was involved in a number of Olympic broadcasts, but what many people probably don’t know or remember is that through the 80s and 90s, the ABC had television rights to a number of lower-tier professional sports such as basketball and David popped up as a commentator in front of a national television audience on just about everything except VFL (well, as far as I can tell he didn’t call any VFL). Through my work I have had the pleasure of seeing many ABC TV sport broadcast tapes from those years in recent times and lost count of how many times David turned up on them. His distinctive voice and passion for whatever sport he called always stood out. There was also a period of time, prior to the formation of the National Rugby League, where ABC TV had some rugby league television broadcast rights, including during the Super League years where ABC ran their own commentary over the top of a Fox Sports broadcast, and David had some involvement there too, which was always a delight.

One thing which David has always managed is to remember that sport is entertainment, and commentary should recognise that. I dare say that this has probably been a bit easier since moving to 2GB where the commentators have a bit more scope and freedom than those at the ABC do to have fun while calling a game and go a little bit off-topic at times. It is my view that some of David’s best work has been at 2GB over the last nine years where he adapted to the 2GB style very well and brought the audience a fantastic combination of insightful commentary, reasons to laugh, and a great passion for the game of rugby league and other sports too. His chemistry with Darryl Brohman in particular and their ability to bounce off each other during a call with everything from serious analysis to the utterly absurd has been a highlight of the broadcasts. It has been a true delight to hear.

Away from the broadcast box, David is very highly regarded among the rest of the media as one of the nicest people in the business. The last time I mentioned David on this blog was when he made the move to 2GB. I originally made an error in recounting his reasons for making the move and I received an email from David pointing it out and requesting it be corrected. While I didn’t recognise the email address and couldn’t be sure I was really corresponding with David, the facts bore out so I was more than willing to make a correction. David, however, sensing my concern about the legitimacy of the correspondence, followed up with a phone call to assure me that the email was really from him and we had a brief chat. It was a very nice gesture and one which meant a lot to me.

In David’s absence, Mark Levy is stepping up to the plate at 2GB as their main rugby league commentator, while Ray Hadley is also picking up a few extra games (having confined himself primarily to State of Origin and the finals in recent years). David leaves big shoes to fill and a style which won’t be imitated; I’m sure Mark will do well in his own style but David will be sorely missed.

Some years ago a work colleague said to me that he thought my interest in many sports was more of an interest in the commentary than in the actual sports a lot of the time. In many ways that is true. I tend to seek out the commentary which appeals to me the most and will often watch or listen to a game which doesn’t particularly interest me just to hear the commentary. Andrew Self on TalkSport calls a few Premier League games and is always fun; Tim Gossage calling AFL is an inimitable experience; Darren McAullay’s deep rich voice calling Western Australian horse racing gets me to pay attention even if I am not invested in the race; Joe Tessitore calling American college football is enough to get me to switch on a game I otherwise wouldn’t watch (Joe did an excellent job calling NFL Monday night games for a few years and should never have been dropped from the role); Rex Hunt, when he was still calling AFL, never delivered a dull moment. Brenton Speed, now working for Nine and calling a lot of tennis, can get me to watch players I’ve never heard of with names which seem to have all of the consonants and none of the vowels. I could go on for quite a while.

David Morrow was one of those voices on my list of “if he’s calling, I’m listening”. I am going to miss hearing him and checking to see which games he is calling each week.

I sincerely wish David all the best for the future. I hope he is able to maintain a high quality of life and can continue to enjoy all that life has to offer, especially his passions of various sports including horse racing, and time with his family. It is also my hope that one day, David will feel well enough to have the occasional cameo in broadcasting. I’m sure his adoring fans will be delighted if that were to occur.

All the best David, and thanks for the many many years of great commentary.


1 comment March 8th, 2024 at 07:06am

A profitable update on horse and greyhound results, plus a cameo from Pebbles and Shyley

I’ve been quite pleased with the results of the horse strategies which I ran through last week, and the greyhounds have been doing well too, but required more patience than I could provide so I made a change the other day and it’s been quite pleasing. This morning I decided it was a good time to update you on the results.

Shyley insisted on having her say around the seven minute mark and Pebbles joined her for a cameo.

I also gave a sneak peek of a soccer strategy I’m working on. I had hoped to provide details by now but I made some big changes to the strategy the other day and it hasn’t been running for long enough (and I don’t have the data to run a decent simulation on) to have enough confidence in it to be willing to properly details the strategy yet. But it’s started well so hopefully by early next week I can do that.

Some of the graphs in the video might be a touch small, so here they are. Click any of them to enlarge them.

Backing horses in the $2-$3 odds range in the Fav Money Maker Bot using a 50c starting stake, $25 profit target and $50 stop loss
Results from the Fav Money Bot

It hit a stop loss early on as Friday wasn’t a great day for it (and my laying results for Saturday indicate Saturday would have been disastrous so it’s a good thing I followed my strategy and stopped the bot for Saturday and resumed it for Sunday), but has hit two profit targets since to be ahead. This is the sort of pattern I expected based on the modeling in the strategy details post where it seemed clear that stop losses would occur occasionally but the profit targets would be more frequent and would overcome the losses and then some.

Laying horses in the $2-$3 odds range in the ANZ Horse Bot using a 25c profit target per race and $100 stop loss
Results from the ANZ Horse Bot

It’s a slow and steady system which is working well. Saturday was an absolute standout of a day, but I slept through most of it so I didn’t get to enjoy it as it happened, and woke to a rather nice increase in profit later.

The greyhounds in the Lay Grey Bot.

The strategy which I ran through previously was working but required more patience than I was willing to provide to it. Effectively it was profitable however it would have some bad runs which would create a large drawdown, and a number of slightly-better-than-break-even days, and then the occasional standout period which would rocket it back up into profit. A good system if you have patience and a bankroll capable of withstanding some big drawdowns along the way. I wanted to try something different so I ran some numbers on a few days worth of Australia and New Zealand dog races to see if laying the third and fourth favourites at odds of under $8 would work with this staking system. The benefit of under $8 is that after a loss, the recovery cycle recovers into profit without needing further wins and can be in quite a good profit if the odds were quite low on the losing bet.

I had looked at something similar in my early attempts at this staking system but had included some higher odds runners and wasn’t taking anything under $5 as I figured anything paying less than that would be too much of a risk. The results then weren’t great and led to my further revisions into the strategies which I posted previously. A difference here is that I wouldn’t be even looking at odds over $8 and would take anything less, which means that at worst it only would need a strike rate of 83.33%. What I found from running the numbers was that the 3rd favourites under $8 could get me a strike rate of 86.52% and the 4th favourites 89.01%.

I decided to launch this strategy on Tuesday morning in the wee hours while the UK dogs were running. It took off like a rocket making $40 profit by 9am. After that the Australian day wasn’t great, and it has been up and down on the third favourites ever since, making profit overall but acting much like the rollercoaster ride of the previous systems on a shorter timeframe. The fourth favourites however have just been a steady upwards trajectory and have made $50 profit over the two and a half days.
Results from the Lay Grey Bot

It is worth noting that the third favourites have a lot of activity through the AU/NZ races and also through the UK races, with the evening session (UK time) of the UK dogs being the best performer so far. The fourth favourites get minimal activity through the Australian and New Zealand races, with one or two bets per meeting usually, but quite a bit of activity in the UK which makes sense as the smaller field sizes would lead to lower odds on a fourth favourite. The fourth favourites have less activity but more consistient results.

I have decided to run with the fourth favourites and stopped the third favourites.

I’m also working on a soccer laying strategy which has made a dollar in the day and a half it has been running. Weekends have much more activity than weekdays for soccer, so I’m hopeful that results will continue on their current path and I can share details with you next week.

Until then, greetings from myself and Pebbles and Shyley
Pebbles and Shyley appear in the video


Add comment March 7th, 2024 at 01:28pm

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