Samuel's Blog

A profitable update on horse and greyhound results, plus a cameo from Pebbles and Shyley

March 7th, 2024 at 01:28pm

I’ve been quite pleased with the results of the horse strategies which I ran through last week, and the greyhounds have been doing well too, but required more patience than I could provide so I made a change the other day and it’s been quite pleasing. This morning I decided it was a good time to update you on the results.

Shyley insisted on having her say around the seven minute mark and Pebbles joined her for a cameo.

I also gave a sneak peek of a soccer strategy I’m working on. I had hoped to provide details by now but I made some big changes to the strategy the other day and it hasn’t been running for long enough (and I don’t have the data to run a decent simulation on) to have enough confidence in it to be willing to properly details the strategy yet. But it’s started well so hopefully by early next week I can do that.

Some of the graphs in the video might be a touch small, so here they are. Click any of them to enlarge them.

Backing horses in the $2-$3 odds range in the Fav Money Maker Bot using a 50c starting stake, $25 profit target and $50 stop loss

It hit a stop loss early on as Friday wasn’t a great day for it (and my laying results for Saturday indicate Saturday would have been disastrous so it’s a good thing I followed my strategy and stopped the bot for Saturday and resumed it for Sunday), but has hit two profit targets since to be ahead. This is the sort of pattern I expected based on the modeling in the strategy details post where it seemed clear that stop losses would occur occasionally but the profit targets would be more frequent and would overcome the losses and then some.

Laying horses in the $2-$3 odds range in the ANZ Horse Bot using a 25c profit target per race and $100 stop loss

It’s a slow and steady system which is working well. Saturday was an absolute standout of a day, but I slept through most of it so I didn’t get to enjoy it as it happened, and woke to a rather nice increase in profit later.

The greyhounds in the Lay Grey Bot.

The strategy which I ran through previously was working but required more patience than I was willing to provide to it. Effectively it was profitable however it would have some bad runs which would create a large drawdown, and a number of slightly-better-than-break-even days, and then the occasional standout period which would rocket it back up into profit. A good system if you have patience and a bankroll capable of withstanding some big drawdowns along the way. I wanted to try something different so I ran some numbers on a few days worth of Australia and New Zealand dog races to see if laying the third and fourth favourites at odds of under $8 would work with this staking system. The benefit of under $8 is that after a loss, the recovery cycle recovers into profit without needing further wins and can be in quite a good profit if the odds were quite low on the losing bet.

I had looked at something similar in my early attempts at this staking system but had included some higher odds runners and wasn’t taking anything under $5 as I figured anything paying less than that would be too much of a risk. The results then weren’t great and led to my further revisions into the strategies which I posted previously. A difference here is that I wouldn’t be even looking at odds over $8 and would take anything less, which means that at worst it only would need a strike rate of 83.33%. What I found from running the numbers was that the 3rd favourites under $8 could get me a strike rate of 86.52% and the 4th favourites 89.01%.

I decided to launch this strategy on Tuesday morning in the wee hours while the UK dogs were running. It took off like a rocket making $40 profit by 9am. After that the Australian day wasn’t great, and it has been up and down on the third favourites ever since, making profit overall but acting much like the rollercoaster ride of the previous systems on a shorter timeframe. The fourth favourites however have just been a steady upwards trajectory and have made $50 profit over the two and a half days.

It is worth noting that the third favourites have a lot of activity through the AU/NZ races and also through the UK races, with the evening session (UK time) of the UK dogs being the best performer so far. The fourth favourites get minimal activity through the Australian and New Zealand races, with one or two bets per meeting usually, but quite a bit of activity in the UK which makes sense as the smaller field sizes would lead to lower odds on a fourth favourite. The fourth favourites have less activity but more consistient results.

I have decided to run with the fourth favourites and stopped the third favourites.

I’m also working on a soccer laying strategy which has made a dollar in the day and a half it has been running. Weekends have much more activity than weekdays for soccer, so I’m hopeful that results will continue on their current path and I can share details with you next week.

Until then, greetings from myself and Pebbles and Shyley

Samuel

Entry Filed under: Adventures In Betting

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