Samuel's Blog

The Emperor Has No Clothes

Today’s New York Post

H/T Fox News’ breakfast show “Fox & Friends”.

Samuel

November 5th, 2014 at 10:00pm

US Midterm Elections: the early washup

Counting is still going but the overall results are a certainty. Republicans now have control of the House and Senate, effectively stopping Obama’s awful agenda where it is. Some efforts might be made to wind back some of Obama’s policies but while he still has the power to veto legislation, there probably won’t be much progress on returning the US federal government to conservative governing principles…that might have to wait until after 2016. In fact, I think you will see the next two years on both sides being more about what they plan to do after 2016 rather than what they plan to do before the Presidential election.

Republicans have increased their Senate stake, taking up to nine of the seats which belonged to Democrats. It’s not a filibuster-proof majority, but (detestable) Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Democrat-Nevada) got around not having a filibuster-proof majority by perverting the rules of the Senate. It will be interesting to see if Republicans follow his lead (I hope not) or uphold the rules even if it slows them down.

The Republican majority in the House has increased by more than anyone realistically expected.

Currently the Senate has Republicans 52 to Democrats 45. An easy locked-in majority for the Republicans with three seats still to decide.

Currently the House has Republicans 233 to Democrats 159. A locked-in majority with 43 seats left to decide.

Republicans have gained multiple Governorships, including two states which are traditionally hostile territory for them: Massachusetts and Illinois. On the subject of Governorships, Jan Brewer was not able to run for Arizona Governor again due to a term limit. Her successor Doug Ducey easily defeated the Democrat challenger Fred DuVal, currently 54% to 41%. Keep an eye out for Jan Brewer on the national stage.

Maryland is another difficult state for Republicans, but they have taken out the Governorship, with the “rain tax” imposed by Democrats being one of the major issues there. Larry Hogan is currently leading Anthony Brown 52% to 46% late in the count.

The one incumbent Republican (of the eight House seats in Maryland) Andy Harris utterly obliterated his Democrat opponent 71% to 29%, while six of the other seats have stayed with Democrats easily (showing how hard this area is for Republicans to win) while in Maryland’s 6th Congressional District, Dan Bongino is maintaining a 2% lead over Democrat incumbent John Delaney with 14% of the count to go. It will be tight, but Dan is putting up a very good fight.

Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin, one of the great examples of good conservative leadership, won easily as well, currently leading 53% to 46% very late in the count.

Before I bring up a race in Virginia, I have to bring up the fact that I made the mistake of turning on ABC News 24 for a few minutes earlier when they were discussing the US midterm elections. Their analyst made the odd statement that ‘the Tea Party has really been sidelined in this election’, and then went on to talk about how Republicans have won so much because of their conservative, small-government, constitutional message. Given that is the definition of the Tea Party, one wonders what he thinks the Tea Party is?

I bring this up because in Virginia back in the Primaries, Dave Brat managed to oust then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor as the Republican candidate for Virginia’s 7th House District. Dave Brat today defeated Democrat challenger Jack Trammell in a landslide, 61% to 37%.

Elsewhere there is mixed news out of California. Democrat Governor Jerry “Moonbeam” Brown (who has helped to create a man-made drought across the rural parts of that state) has defeated his Republican challenger Neel Kashkari, currently leading 57% to 43% with 29% counted.

There is some good news from California though. Sandra Fluke, the peculiar woman who made headlines a couple years ago when she effectively demanded that society as a whole should pay for her birth control measures and was subsequently called a “slut” by Rush Limbaugh, has lost her bid to get in to the state Senate…the bad news though is that she was one of two Democrat candidates without any other challengers, so the victor was another Democrat. Currently Ben Allan is leading Sandra Fluke 63.3% to 36.7%.

There were a heap of ballot initiatives around as well. I’ll have a look through some of them and point out some of the more interesting ones in a future post.

Overall it looks like a fantastic day for Republicans and conservatives…but more importantly for the American people and the world. At long last, after six years of Obama, Congress is finally in a position where there is a willingness to keep the executive branch in check. It is probably safe to say that the days of Obama’s executive overreach are over. Unfortunately it will take longer to undo the effects of his disastrous policies, but at least he won’t be able to get many more (if any) of his wishes through the Congress. Alas it might take until 2016 to get some real momentum on fixing the country.

Still, a very good day with a very good outcome. I’ll have more on this tomorrow.

Samuel

November 5th, 2014 at 05:24pm

Two big Republican Gubernatorial victories

Massachusetts, a fairly left-leaning state, has gone to the Republicans. Charlie Baker has defeated Democrat Martha Coakley. Currently leading 48% to 47% with 82% counted and most of the rest of the count being fairly safe Republican ground. Safe enough for media outlets to be willing to call it.

Illinois, home state of Barack Obama, has gone to the Republicans. Bruce Rauner is leading incumbent Democrat Governor Pat Quinn 51% to 46% with 85% counted.

Samuel

November 5th, 2014 at 03:54pm

The Senate is now in majority Republican hands*

Fox News has called Iowa for Joni Ernst. Associated Press has called North Carolina for Thom Tillis, dispatching the deplorable Kay Hagan.

It’s a majority. It looks like there are more seats to come for the Republicans.

Great news.

*Once the new Congress sits, which is not immediately.

Samuel

November 5th, 2014 at 03:30pm

State of play in the Senate (and some other US elections)

The early calls for a Republican victory in South Dakota were accurate. Mike Rounds is leading Democrat Rick Weiland 51% to 28% with 47% counted. The nearest independent candidate is on 17%.

Virginia is in play. Democrat incumbent Mark Warner is leading Republican Ed Gillespie by about 10,000 votes (less than 1%) with 93% counted.

North Carolina is looking good for the Republicans and could give them the +6 they need to take a majority in the Senate. Republican Thom Tillis is leading the reprehensible Democrat incumbent Kay Hagan 49% to 47% with 96% counted.

In Iowa, Republican Joni Ernst is leading her Democrat opponent 49% to 47% with 53% counted.

Republicans Cory Gardner and Tom Cotton are winning easily in Colorado and Arkansas respectively.

The projections from many media outlets are now suggesting the Republicans will retain their House majority (there’s no doubt on that one) and pick up as many as nine Senate seats (much more than the six they need). At this time, no Republican incumbent Governor has lost, and there are incumbent Democrat Governors who look set to lose to a Republican.

It’s looking like a big victory, and should stop the Obama agenda quite convincingly. I expect the next two years will be more about the platform each party will take to 2016 than anything else, as it’s unlikely that Barack Obama will acquiesce to the wishes of the people and sign much of the legislation passed by the Republicans or adhere to their attempts to make him stick within his constitutionally mandated powers (something which he has so far proven incapable of doing).

A very good election so far…and lots of work to do once the new Congress sits.

Samuel

November 5th, 2014 at 03:23pm

Some non-Senate races of interest

There’s another Senate seat which all the news outlets are calling based on opinion polls rather than a vote count, which gives the Republicans +5…one more and they have a majority.

Some other races of interest.

Gubernatorial races:
Scott Walker, the Republican Governor of Wisconsin is being re-elected easily. 17% counted, he leads 60% to 39%.

Texas is also an easy victory for Republicans with Greg Abbott leading by a similar margin to Scott Walker. Greg Abbott replaces outgoing Republican Rick Perry.

South Carolina Republican Governor Nikki Hayley is also being re-elected by a similar margin.

Unfortunately in Pennsylvania, Republican Governor Tom Corbett has been ousted by Democrat Tom Wolf, currently 57% to 43% with 56% counted.

Maryland is a very tight race. Democrat Governor Anthony Brown (one of the people responsible for Maryland’s rain tax) is leading Republican Larry Hogan by 1%, or about 8,000 votes, with 30% of the vote counted.

Illinois could change hands to the Republicans. 51% counted and Republican Bruce Rauner leads incumbent Democrat Pat Quinn by 1%.

And there are a couple of other states which look like changing hands, mostly from Democrat to Republican, but all of those races are far too close to call at the moment.

In House seats.

One of the great shames of the 2012 election was that Mia Love did not win a seat in Utah. This time around she is running for Utah’s fourth district and the opinion polling looks good for her. No votes counted as yet.

In Indiana, none of the seats are changing hands. Seven Republicans and two Democrats.

In Maryland’s 6th district, Dan Bongino is currently leading incumbent Democrat John Delaney, 50% to 48% with 33% counted. This is a big comeback from the early stages of the count where Dan Bongino was down by a long way. We won’t have a result here for a while, but it’s good to see Dan is in the lead.

Lots happening around the traps. It is looking like a good night for the Republicans overall at this stage. In fact, as an example of how good things are looking for the Republicans, TheHill.com just sent out an alert about the Democrats picking up their first Republican House seat of the night…four and a half hours in to the count! I’m not sure which seat they’re referring to though as they didn’t specify and there are far too many house seats for me to scroll through them quickly.

Samuel

November 5th, 2014 at 02:34pm

It’s +4 for the Republicans

Remembering they need to gain six senate seats to form a majority in the Senate, and keeping in mind my earlier note that all the news outlets are calling South Dakota based on opinion polling without any of the count having been reported, another Senate seat has changed hands to the Republicans.

Colorado has voted for Republican Cory Gardner over incumbent Democrat Mark Udall. 63% counted…it’s 50% to 44%.

More polls close in moments from now. I’ll put together a quick rundown of some non-Senate races of interest shortly.

Samuel

November 5th, 2014 at 02:00pm

Louisiana heading to a runoff election next month

Louisiana has a different system than most other states. Instead of a Primary system which allows people to elect one candidate per party for election day, a whole heap of candidates can run on election day. Today for example there are four Democrats, three Republicans and one Libertarian.

If no candidate receives at least 50% of the vote, then the two candidates who receive the most votes will face each other again in a runoff election. It looks pretty certain now that Louisiana’s Senate race will go to a runoff election on December 6.

Right now, with 10% counted, Republican Bill Cassidy is leading incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu 43% to 42% (61,953 to 61,584). Bill’s a good candidate…hopefully he goes on to win the runoff.

Samuel

November 5th, 2014 at 01:53pm

Possible third seat, but I’ll wait for a count

This is odd. NBC, CNN, Fox, and pretty much everyone else is awarding South Dakota to Republican Mike Rounds, making it the third of six Senate seat pickups which Republicans require for a Senate majority. The odd things is that they are all making this pronouncement without any votes having been counted…they are going on opinion polling which gave Mike Rounds a strong lead.

I’m going to wait until I see some actual numbers. Calling a race before any votes are counted is just silly.

Samuel

November 5th, 2014 at 01:29pm

Senate seat pickup number two

It looks like Republicans have now picked up two of the six Senate seats they require in order to form a majority.

In Arkansas, Tom Cotton looks likely to defeat incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor.

Republicans have picked up two of the six seats needed to gain the Senate majority, with Fox News projecting GOP Rep. Tom Cotton will unseat two-term Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor in Arkansas and Shelley Moore Capito will beat Democrat Natalie Tennant for an open Senate seat in West Virginia.

(h/t FoxNews.com)

As I write this, with 16% counted, Tom Cotton leads Mark Pryor 52% to 45% (73,904 to 63,692). In West Virginia with 35% counted, Shelley Moore Capito is leading Natalie Tennant 61% to 35% (113,822 to 66,093).

Good start, but early days still.

Samuel

November 5th, 2014 at 12:57pm

The first Senate seat pickup for the Republicans

It’s early in the night, and the Republicans need to pick up six Democratic senate seats in order to gain a majority. The good news is Republicans have picked up one of these seats. The even better news is that the next time someone tries to claim Republicans are engaged in a “war on women” you should point them to this as an example of how silly that argument is.

Republican candidate Shelley Moore Capito defeated Democratic challenger Natalie Tennant in Tuesday’s election for West Virginia’s seat in the United States Senate, reports said. Capito is the first female senator in the state’s history.

Capito’s victory marks the first time since 1956 that a Republican will represent West Virginia in the U.S. Senate.

(H/t Thomas Barrabi, International Business Times)

Meanwhile, claims that Republicans are against black people (or vice versa), which have always been patently absurd, have been proven once again to be patently absurd.

South Carolina has elected the first black senator from the South since Reconstruction, with Republican Tim Scott winning his race to complete a term to the Senate after having been appointed to the seat in 2013. Scott is the first African American popularly elected to the Senate in the old Confederacy.

(H/t Michael Warren, The Weekly Standard)

It’s a good start for Republicans, and a bad start for the nutty people who try to portray (and are often taken seriously for no good reason) Republicans as being some modern-day version of the KKK.

Some good people elected so far. Much more to come.

Samuel

November 5th, 2014 at 11:59am

US Midterm Elections

Polls are just starting to close in a few places in the US where 6pm has just passed in the Eastern timezone, but only a very small number of polls have closed as many places have closing times which are later than 6pm in their local timezone.

The indications are good that after six painful years of the most awful US President in recent history (and probably of all time, but let’s not dwell on this right now), the Republicans should be able to retain the House and form a majority in the Senate, which will put serious road blocks in the way of Obama’s awful and disastrous agenda. The midterm election of 2010 gave Republicans the House, but more importantly did so on the back of a conservative agenda…this slowed down the progress of Obama’s policies as his friends only had control of the Senate and thus could not just push things through Congress with minimal resistance as they did during the first two years. Unfortunately not all Republicans are conservatives, and the mixed messages which came out of this combined with a lacklustre candidate (Mitt Romney) for President in 2012 seriously hampered efforts to save America from Obama. As the terrible legacy of Obamacare and other Obama policies has become apparent, conservatives have found it easier to show people why conservative policies are the better choice, and so this election is looking good.

All of that said, it’s not a certainty. The Republicans should not have any trouble holding the House, but the Senate (roughly a third of which is up for election…it can’t be an exact third when there are 100 Senate seats) will be a close battle. Republicans require only an extra six seats which should not be a hard ask, but with a few close races it could go down to the wire, and may even have to wait for a runoff election in December if things are really close.

Of course if Republicans hold a majority in the House and the Senate, one problem to deal with is the fact that Mitch McConnell will almost certainly be Senate Majority Leader. Senator McConnell has repeatedly proved himself to not be an ally of the handful of Republican senators who have been consistently advocating for conservative principles, and so it will be interesting to see if he changes his tune for the better, or if he will need to be replaced before 2016.

There are also a heap of Gubernatorial races today, state legislature elections, and a heap of ballot initiatives. A few of them are of interest to me, and I’ll update you on some of them later in the day. I hope that the number of conservative Republican governors grows (20 of the 36 Republicans running in a Gubernatorial race are the incumbent), as most have been proving themselves to be great models of good and successful governing, and it would be wonderful to see this grow before 2016 and help to influence the way people vote for President next time around.

In particular I would like to single out Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin who has, in conjunction with the legislature, turned a basket case economy around in to a good strong economy, brought the budget back to surplus and and paid off a lot of the debt which the state government held before he took office. Things are much better in Wisconsin now, and I hope Governor Walker is re-elected, and serves as a model for future people in government at all levels.

Dan Bongino is another candidate of interest. He is running for a Congressional seat in Maryland. He previously worked as a Secret Service agent protecting both President George W. Bush and President Barack Obama, and claims this gave him an insight in to the problems with the way power is exercised. He is running on conservative principles and I think would make an excellent Congressman. I wish him all the best of luck.

My best wishes go out to all conservative candidates in all races across the country. It is my sincere hope that as many win as possible, Obama’s destructive policies are stopped in their tracks as a result, and this election serves as a good start for a return to government by conservative principles, limited in size and interference in private matters, and consequently working almost exclusively on core functions, and in so doing making it easier for people to make their own choices without needing approval from government to run their own lives and businesses.

It is an exciting day.

Currently I am listening to Mark Levin’s radio show (there are a gazillion stations taking his show if you want to search for one and join me…I won’t link to the one I’m listening via because it’s supposed to be geoblocked and I shouldn’t be able to hear it here, but there are plenty of stations which aren’t geoblocked). Mark will be covering many of the results as they come in, and after 1pm Canberra time when his show finishes, I plan on jumping across to Salem Radio Network’s election night coverage anchored by Hugh Hewitt (probably via WNYM AM 970 The Answer in New York), and possibly I might listen to a bit of Glenn Beck’s coverage or even Fox News Radio’s coverage. All are good options.

Samuel

November 5th, 2014 at 10:50am

Melbourne Cup 2014: Results

The 2014 Melbourne Cup has been run and won. Correct Weight has been declared. All TABs are now paying dividends. Listed dividends are final. The full finishing order is now posted below.

For those of you who are unsure of which TAB dividend is relevant to you, the simple guide is:
Super TAB: Victoria, ACT, Western Australia
NSW TAB: New South Wales
Tatts: Queensland, Tasmania, Northern Territory, South Australia
If you placed a bet through an outlet other than a TAB, you should refer to that outlet’s website for their prizes.

**Final Dividends**
1st: 5. Protectionist
Win: Super TAB $8.60, NSW $8.20, Tatts $8.40
Place: Super TAB $3.10, NSW $3.00, Tatts $3.00

2nd: 4. Red Cadeaux
Place: Super TAB $5.10, NSW $5.60, Tatts $5.10

3rd: 12. Who Shot Thebarman
Place: Super TAB $3.60, NSW $3.30, Tatts $3.60

4th: 24. Signoff

Quinella (Protectionist & Red Cadeaux)
Super TAB $87.50, NSW $92.70, Tatts $87.80

Exacta (Protectionist & Red Cadeaux)
Super TAB $155.70, NSW $154.30, Tatts $158.10

Trifecta (Protectionist, Red Cadeaux, Who Shot Thebarman)
Super TAB $2,173.10, NSW $2,202.40, Tatts $1,918.30

First Four (Protectionist, Red Cadeaux, Who Shot Thebarman, Signoff)
Super TAB $15,381.80, NSW $18.884.00, Tatts $18,452.80

Duet / Any Two
5. Protectionist / 4. Red Cadeaux
Super TAB $26.90, NSW $31.20, Tatts $31.90

5. Protectionist / 12. Who Shot Thebarman
Super TAB $30.60, NSW $26.30, Tatts $26.80

4. Red Cadeaux / 12. Who Shot Thebarman
Super TAB $48.20, NSW $44.00, Tatts $39.80

Running Double
Race 6 (3. Hijack Hussy) and Race 7 (5. Protectionist)
Super TAB $109.60, NSW $33.30. (Tatts does not offer this bet type)

**Full finishing order**
1st: 5. Protectionist
2nd: 4. Red Cadeaux
3rd: 12. Who Shot Thebarman
4th: 24. Signoff
5th: 13. Willing Foe
6th: 15. Precedence
7th: 21. Araldo
8th: 18. Au Revoir
9th: 7. Seismos
10th: 3. Fawkner
11th: 20. Opinion
12th: 10. Gatewood
13th: 22. Lucia Valentina
14th: 11. Mutual Regard
15th: 16. Brambles
16th: 23. Unchain My Heart
17th: 14. My Ambivalent
18th: 8. Junoob
19th: 19. Lidari
20th: 9. Royal Diamond
21st: 17. Mr O’Ceirin
22nd/last: 1. Admire Rakti

Scratched (did not start): 2. Cavalryman
Scratched (did not start): 6. Sea Moon

**My tips**
12. Who Shot Thebarman
I picked this horse to run first. It came in 3rd.

15. Precedence
I picked this horse for a place but it ran 6th.

20. Opinion
I picked this horse for a place, but it ran 11th.

Sad news after the race
Stewards at Flemington have confirmed some rather sad news. The favourite, Admire Rakti, broke down after running last and has died after returning to the stables. My thoughts and prayers go out to the people connected with this horse.

Also, Peter Donegan on Seven has reported that Araldo has been injured after the race. He was frightened by something and kicked the fence, injuring a hind leg. He is being taken to a vet for assessment. Peter Donegan reports it looks like a severe injury. A further update on Araldo is that the injury is operable, and Araldo’s prospects look good. Update Wednesday 5 November 10:09am: Unfortunately Araldo had to be put down overnight. A very sad end to the great race this year. End update

Samuel

Updated: 5:07pm (except for further update noted above)

November 4th, 2014 at 03:10pm

Melbourne Cup 2014: tips and broadcast information

It’s Melbourne Cup day again. I gave the Melbourne Cup a miss on this blog last year, but I’m back this year and will provide my usual results service including the full finishing order of the horses after the race, which is often useful for the sweeps where a prize is offered for last place (or in some unusual sweeps, one of the other places in the middle of the field somewhere) and is also of some importance this year with some online betting outlets offering a prize for correctly picking the first ten horses in order, the odds of which are astronomically difficult and it deserves a larger prize than is being offered, but with a prize of over a million dollars on Melbourne Cup day, I can see why it would be tempting.

My tips
I’m not going to attempt to pick the first ten horse in order, but I will give you my top three.

I like horse number 12 “Who Shot Thebarman”. Not the most consistent recent form, but with a decent barrier (13) and ridden by Glen Boss, I think he stands a good chance. He has won previously over this distance which is also a plus, and his last two victories were at this track with this jockey, although as a six-year-old there are definitely some more young and spritely horses in the race, but I’m happy to select Who Shot Thebarman as my top pick.

The other two horses I like are number 15 “Precedence” who I don’t think can win but I can think can run a place, and number 20 “Opinion” who, like Who Shot Thebarman, is trained by C.J. Waller.

Scratchings
(Updated 12:02pm)
The Melbourne Cup field is currently now down to 22 horses due to the early scratching of number 6 “Sea Moon”, and the subsequent scratching of number 2 “Cavalryman”.

Broadcast information
The Seven Network is the official television broadcaster of the race which starts at 3pm Melbourne time (2:30pm in South Australia, 2:00pm in Queensland, 1:30pm in the Northern Territory, and 12:00pm in Western Australia) and you can be sure it will be shown on a television in every TAB and most clubs and function venues in the country.

For those who can’t be near a television, many radio stations will be covering it. Your local racing station will definitely have full coverage and a bunch of other stations will be taking the coverage for at least the race, if not some of the pre-race and post-race coverage.
Melbourne: RSN 927AM
Sydney: Sky Sports Radio 1017AM
Canberra: Sky Sports Radio 1008AM and ACTTAB Radio 88.7 FM (limited broadcast range for the latter)
Brisbane: Radio TAB 1008AM
Adelaide: Radio TAB 1539AM
Darwin: Radio TAB 1242AM
Hobart: Radio TAB 1080AM
Perth: TAB Radio 1206AM

For non-capital cities, the frequency of your local racing station can be found at the following sites:
New South Wales (and some towns on the Victorian side of the border): Sky Sports Radio frequency finder
Victoria: Radio Sport National frequency map
Queensland, South Australia, and the Northern Territory: Tattsbet’s Radio TAB frequency list
Western Australia: WA Tab Radio frequency list

Of course you can also listen to the race online. The best station for this is undoubtedly RSN 927 in Melbourne as it is the originating station for the coverage which will be heard on other stations across Australia. They have a Windows Media stream which should work in most players. Click the following link or copy and paste it in to your favourite media player: http://www.rsn.net.au/ListenLive.asx

This stream will get very busy, so if you can’t connect to it or have other problems with it, the other racing stations are your next best bet.
Sky Sports Radio: http://www.skyracing.com.au/index.php?component=content&Itemid=121&id=97 (requires Flash player)
Tattsbet Radio TAB: https://media.tatts.com/Tattsbet/radiotab_http.asx (Windows Media stream)
WA TAB: https://www.tabtouch.com.au/RRLive (to play in a browser with Flash Player) or http://racingradio.rwwa.com.au/live to directly play the MP3 stream.

2GB in Sydney also usually take the race and have a decent capacity for listeners on their stream, so if none of the above work for you, then http://www.2gb.com/listen-live will probably get you the race.

The above stations are all also available via phone apps such as Tunein Radio.

If you’re having a bet today, then best of luck to you, and remember to gamble responsibly.

I’ll have all of the results this afternoon following the race.

Samuel

November 4th, 2014 at 05:43am