Samuel's Blog

Election 2007 – 6:50pm

No votes counted in Canberra or Fraser yet, but Eden Monaro is showing a swing to Labor of 6%, but the Liberals are leading by 42 votes.

Hume is showing a 4% swing to Labor, but the Liberals have nearly double the votes of Labor.

My point here is that the swing is not going to mean a thing for at least another hour when we actually have a reasonable percentage of votes counted…unless the swing is at least ten percent.

Samuel

November 24th, 2007 at 06:49pm

Election 2007 – 6:30pm

With 0.1% of the vote counted, and only in Tasmania, Victoria, New South Wales and the ACT, Labor have a 1.68% swing towards them.

Exit polls predict a Labor win in the seat of Eden Monaro.

However with only a Newspoll or thereabouts of votes counted, there really isn’t enough to go on.

More updates to follow.

Samuel

November 24th, 2007 at 06:35pm

Election 2007

Welcome to the Samuel’s Blog Election 2007 coverage of overall results, and the results from the seats of Fraser, Canberra, Eden-Monaro and Hume, plus ACT senate seats.

Due to not having enough available disk space on my streaming computer to record the election coverage, I am unable to provide a webstream of this election. That being said, if you’re in Canberra, the best place for election coverage in my view is 2CC (1206 on the AM dial).

We won’t start to see results until about 6:30, but I will strive to keep you updated through the night.

Samuel

November 24th, 2007 at 06:09pm

I’ve got three songs on standby for tonight

Happy election night Stuart, John and Steve

I just thought you might like to know that I have three songs on standby tonight.

If it's a Labor victory, then for Kevin and Julia I've got "We've only just begun" by The Carpenters
If the coalition win and John Howard keeps his seat, then for John Howard it's "Still the one" by Orleans
And if the coalition win but John Howard loses his seat, then for Peter Costello it's "It's My Party" by Lesley Gore (with lyrics such as "Nobody knows where my Johnny has gone" it was hard to choose anything else).

Have a great night, I'll be tuning in right through until midnight!

Regards,
Samuel Gordon-Stewart
Canberra

November 24th, 2007 at 05:30pm

Final words on the election until 6PM

As it is now after 1pm and I have to start my afternoon newsreading duties for AIR News shortly, I am not going to have time to have an episode of Editorial Echoes today. The planned episode is probably a tad out of date by now anyway as it was really a Saturday morning script (not that I finished the script, it’s just notes at this stage).

Suffice to say I have cast my vote. I doubt many people here will be surprised to hear that I have voted for the Liberal party in the House of Representatives and the Senate. I have a number of reasons for deciding to do that, and I have to admit that the smear tactics used by certain members of the Liberal party during the week nearly made me change my vote, but I was satisfied that it had backfired badly enough for them and they had taken action against a certain group of people, so they managed to hang on to my vote, as I see other issues as being far more important right now.

I’m sticking to my earlier prediction of the Coalition by two seats, even though the polls are against me. I was pleased to hear a commentator who I have a lot of respect for, 2GB current affairs director Jason Morrison, reach the same conclusion as me yesterday on the 2CC breakfast show…seeing as mine is a hunch and his is the result of careful analysis, I think that’s a good sign…or at least I hope it is.

That being said, I am but one in a poll of millions, and whilst I have cast my vote, every vote counts. Please, if you have not already voted, fill out the form properly, cast a vote based on what you believe in your head, not your heart, and may the most favoured candidates win!

I’ll be back from 6pm or thereabouts with half hourly updates. I’m also going to see about getting a webstream of 2CC’s election coverage online. Capital Radio can sue me if they want…but the Canberrans who are not in Canberra deserve better than a webstream from 666 ABC Canberra in my view…or at the very least, deserve a choice. I more or less have everything ready at this end…I’ll just have to double check everything. If it does happen, the webstream will be online from 6pm to midnight only.

Samuel

November 24th, 2007 at 01:22pm

Samuel’s Blog Election Poll Results

Here are the results from this week’s election poll.

Interestingly it more or less mirrors the result of a lot of larger polls, especially when you compare the two major parties. It also, much like some larger polls, noticed a swing back to the Liberal party towards the end of the week, but not enough to get them over the line.

When you turn that in to a 150 seat figure, you get the following results:
Labor: 56.89655172
Liberal: 51.72413793
Greens: 20.68965517
Democrats: 15.51724138
Other: 5.172413793

Obviously you can’t have partial seats, so the numbers then get wound back to:
Labor: 56
Liberal: 51
Greens: 20
Democrats: 15
Other: 5
Total: 147

This leaves three seats to fill, so we use the original figures and see which three groups were closest to reaching another full seat, and give them those seats. Those groups are Labor, Liberal, Greens.

So, the Samuel’s Blog Election Poll final result says this will be the makeup of the new House of Representatives.
Labor: 57
Liberal: 52
Greens: 21
Democrats: 15
Other: 5

Samuel

November 24th, 2007 at 01:07pm

Election Coverage from 6pm on 2UE, 2CC and Samuel’s Blog

I will get the results of the weekly poll online shortly.

Tonight I will providing half hourly or thereabouts updated on the election, and in particular, the results of Fraser, Canberra, Eden Monaro and Hume, and the overall result in the House of Representatives. I will also be providing updates on the ACT senate election.

I have decided not to rely on the commentary of the ABC, Nine or Seven, and instead will probably have Nine’s coverage muted, and be listening to 2CC all night. 2CC will be using 2UE’s coverage which will be anchored by people I can actually put up with for an entire night, namely Steve Price and John Stanley in the national tally room, and Stuart Bocking in the Sydney studio.

Naturally they will be joined by various political figures, and will have reporters in key locations.

2CC will be running their own half-hourly local updates from the tally room. From what I can gather, they will have their full contingent on news and current affairs staff on hand and in various locations to cover the local seats.

I believe that this coverage will be far better than any other broadcast coverage.

Samuel

November 24th, 2007 at 12:03pm

Happy 60th Birthday Graham

Good morning John,

I would like to join you in wishing Graham a very happy 60th birthday today. I look forward to hearing Graham's calls every weekend, and I hope he has a great birthday.

Regards,
Samuel Gordon-Stewart
Canberra

November 24th, 2007 at 02:00am

The Election Poll is Closed

As it has now passed midnight, the election poll has been closed.

I will post the results and some analysis in the next few hours.

Samuel

November 24th, 2007 at 12:16am