Posts filed under 'General News'
Eden-Monaro is an interesting one. It looks like it will go down to preferences.
Currently the Liberals are leading it 43.96% to 42.64% with 45.71% counted. The two-party preferred count has Labor miles ahead, but I think that figure is wrong as it seems to be distributing the Green vote, which will be the last one to be distributed.
A tad over 3% of the vote belongs to independents and minor parties, and it will be distributed before the Green vote is distributed. If we get a result before the Green preferences come in to play, then the Liberals could take this one, but if the Green preferences come in to it, then Mike Kelly will hang on.
The gap keeps changing here, so for a Liberal win, the gap will need to swing back to the Liberals by a couple points at least, which given the changes through the night isn’t impossible, but will be difficult.
Right now, I have no idea which way this one will go.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 08:20pm
Both Labor and the Liberals have just over a quota each at this stage in the ACT senate race. There has been less than a percent counted there, but the others are all so far behind that it seems pretty clear that the ACT’s two Senate seats will remain unchanged.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 08:10pm
With the polls closing in WA, Labor currently lead by 11 seats nationally, 59 to 48. With 15 seats to count in WA and many of them being held by the Liberals prior to the election, I’d suggest that this is going to be very very close.
I think the swing in Queensland and Western Australia might be enough to get the Liberals over the line, but I don’t think we’ll know tonight.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 08:05pm
The ABC computer now thinks Labor are ahead 62 to 49 seats. I can’t for the life of me work out where it’s getting that figure from.
The AEC website has official current figures of a Coalition lead, 52 to 43.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 07:35pm
Nationally it’s pretty close.
With 18.83% of the votes counted, Labor have won 36 seats, the Coalition 43.
The ABC computer is predicting Coalition 50, Labor 49.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 07:28pm
For the ACT and surrounds.
Eden-Monaro is looking interesting and the vote is fluctuating a lot. Currently with 8.8% counted, the Liberal candidate leads the Labor candidate 44.15% to 41..04%
Hume is clearly returning Liberal Alby Schultz. With 29.56% counted, Alby leads Labor 53.98% to 32%.
Fraser appears to be electing a Labor candidate. Andrew Leigh leads the Liberal candidate 47.68% to 31.24% with 11.18% of the vote counted.
Canberra is also electing Labor, 46.18% to 35.68% with 3.22% counted.
The ACT senate ticket is slow going. They’ve only counted 57 votes, so the results are meaningless at the moment.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 07:25pm
Nationally, seats won according to the electoral commission with 2.52% of the vote counted:
Labor: 7 seats
Coalition: 12 seats
Independents: 1 seat
Prediction from the ABC computer:
Coalition: 45
Labor: 36
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 07:10pm
First seats from the AEC:
NSW: Independent
VIC: Nationals
QLD: Liberal/National Party
TAS: Labor
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 07:00pm
Now I’m seeing a more usual ACT result with Labor leading in both seats. Fraser 45%-30%. Canberra 42%-34%.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 06:57pm
Early ACT results have the Liberals in the lead. In Fraser with 0.2% counted the Liberals have 46%, Labor 37%. In Canberra the Liberals lead Labor 43%-39%.
Nothing in the senate yet.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 06:54pm
The first two seats have been awarded by the electoral commission. Labor have got both of them, and they’re both in Tasmania.
Currently the national two party preferred system has the Coalition leading 59-41% and the ABC computer is giving the coalition 32 seats and Labor 19.
Early ACT results are interesting. They will follow in a moment.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 06:52pm
It’s super early in the night, but with 0.06% of the vote counted, the Coalition have 64.73% of the two-party preferred vote, compared to 35.27% for Labor. The ABC computer is awarding 17 seats to the Coalition and 9 to Labor.
No ACT results yet.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 06:34pm
I’m hearing that the Liberal Party volunteers on the ground in South Australia are receiving a warmer response from the public than expected.
The anticipated swing would put the Liberals in with a chance of taking office, however if South Australia does the unexpected and swings to the Liberals, as seems to be indicated by the mood on the ground, then we could be in for a clearer coalition victory.
This is going to be an election to watch as it unfolds…this could very easily be the most interesting election night in recent history.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 04:29pm
Well that was an usual experience. I was not hassled by ANY of the pamphlet people, although I did deliberately sneak past The Greens who spotted me after I got past and started to move in my direction before obviously deciding that I was already gone and was a lost cause for them anyway.
Oddly enough, the GetUp people looked bored. This is Canberra, normally it’s the Liberal Party people who look bored, not the purveyors of Socialism and Global Warming Doom. For those awful people to look bored, is an interesting sign. It would take a lot for a Liberal candidate to take one of the ACT House of Reps seats, but without an incumbent, and with the communists looking bored, perhaps there is a chance after all.
I’m encouraged.
I’ll be heading back to the polling place after lunch to retrieve a Liberal how-to-vote card so that I can compare it to my how-to-vote card.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 03:15pm
Not a lot has changed since my preliminary how-to-vote card…in fact the only change is that I’ve decided to swap the order in which I placed the Greens and Labor. I don’t expect my preferences to get down to either of them anyway, so it’s not a big change, but I have to do it on the grounds that I can no longer allow any of my preferences to flow to Labor as they:
1. Left their campaign launch until extremely late in the campaign, causing taxpayers to foot the bill for most of it, further proving their love of wasting tax dollars.
2. They, in conjunction with their union mates, ran a bunch scare ads in Canberra and surrounds about massive public service job losses. These ads were false, as Tony Abbott merely plans to cut public service job numbers through natural attrition, not by randomly firing 25% (or some other magic number) of the public service…although in many ways I’d be supportive if that had been his policy.
So, first up, the quick national version:
That’s simple, support real action and the return of sane and sensible government by voting 1 for your local Liberal or National Party candidate. If you have one of each, put them first and second. Distribute the rest of your preferences as you see fit. In the Senate, I’ll leave it up to you as to whether you wish to vote above or below the line.
Fraser
1. MILLIGAN, James Keith (Liberal Party) — obviously he must come first
2. HEDGES-PHILLIPS, Quintin (Secular Party of Australia) — I find a bunch of their policies to be quite scary, especially ones about climate change, mining taxes and illegal immigrants etc, but they have minimal chance of gaining enough seats in parliament to do much of anything, so I’d rather have them than the Labor or Green party. He also has a job which I can respect (Television Presentation Co-ordinator…and he’s not an ABC person!) and isn’t a career politician, which is more than I can say for many people from the other parties.
3. ESGUERRA, Indra (The Greens).
4. LEIGH, Andrew (Australian Labor Party).
Canberra
1. JONES, Giulia (Liberal Party) — “Giulia with a G” would have been a great addition to the Legislative Assembly, so hopefully we can get her in to the federal parliament.
2. ELLERMAN, Sue (The Greens)
3. BRODTMANN, Gai (Labor Party)
Senate
1. HUMPHRIES, Gary (Liberal Party) — I must ask that, in the ACT, Gary gets your first preference and not Matthew Watts. I ask this because in the ACT, Gary needs all the support he can get in order to block a Green from getting a seat. As such, to ensure Gary gets his quota, put him first and Matthew second…this way, once Gary has his quota, his runoff can go to Matthew.
2. WATTS, Matthew (Liberal Party)
3. CHURCHILL, Darren Mark (Democrat) — With the Labor candidates being bumped to the bottom of the list, and independent John Glynn also being demoted, the Democrats find themselves in third and fourth respectively. I do hope that my runoff doesn’t get this far…although with only two Senate seats in the ACT, I doubt that it will.
4. DAVID, Anthony John (Democrat)
5. GLYNN, John (Independent) — John’s people sent me a link with his policies…scary left-wing big government type stuff. Sorry John, but you lost third spot.
6. PARRIS, Hannah (Green Party) — Of the two Greens running in this race, Hannah has made less scary press statements.
7. HATFIELD DODDS, Lin (Green Party) — Still the scariest Green I’ve ever seen. Hopefully she disappears in to a job in which we never have to hear from her ever again after the election is over.
8. LUNDY, Kate Alexandra (Labor Party) — Labor, so right down the bottom of the list. Kate gets a slightly higher spot than David because…
8. MATHEWS, David (Labor) — David disqualified himself from getting a higher ranking in the preferences by dishonestly appearing in a photo of supportive locals in one of Mike Kelly’s (incumbent candidate for Eden-Monaro) pamphlets, and then tried to defend his position on WIN News by claiming that, as he supports Mike Kelly, he is entitled to be in the photo. David, you’re not a local unless you live in the electorate. Still, it’s nice to see that you can be as dishonest as the Labor government have been.
So there we have it. As I said a little while back, I’ll be running regular updates on the election throughout the night, however they won’t be as comprehensive or on the “every three minutes or so” as the last election.
Good luck with your voting today.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 05:32am
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