Current TV computer predictions:
ABC
Labor: 70
Coalition: 62
Other: 4
Doubt: 14
Channel Nine
Labor: 57
Coalition: 53
Other: 4
Doubt: 36
Channel Seven
Labor: 53
Coalition: 37
(graphic has disappeared from the screen, so I don’t have the rest of the numbers from Seven)
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 08:47pm
Super-early WA figures show a huge Coalition lead.
With 0.09% counted:
Coalition: 71.46%
Labor: 19.25%
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 08:29pm
Labor have taken the national two-party preferred lead, 50.18% to 49.82%. Currently the seats won according to official figures are:
Labor: 60
Coalition: 49
Greens: 1
Independent: 3
53.27% of the vote has been counted.
The ABC computer is predicting Labor 65, Coalition 57. The gap is narrowing in their calculation.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 08:26pm
Fairfax radio journalist Latika Bourke is at the Gillard Labor function, and the mood there is flat.
The only sign of optimism in here is when they flash up that JG has retained Lalor. Claps ring out and a few spirited cheers.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 08:22pm
Eden-Monaro is an interesting one. It looks like it will go down to preferences.
Currently the Liberals are leading it 43.96% to 42.64% with 45.71% counted. The two-party preferred count has Labor miles ahead, but I think that figure is wrong as it seems to be distributing the Green vote, which will be the last one to be distributed.
A tad over 3% of the vote belongs to independents and minor parties, and it will be distributed before the Green vote is distributed. If we get a result before the Green preferences come in to play, then the Liberals could take this one, but if the Green preferences come in to it, then Mike Kelly will hang on.
The gap keeps changing here, so for a Liberal win, the gap will need to swing back to the Liberals by a couple points at least, which given the changes through the night isn’t impossible, but will be difficult.
Right now, I have no idea which way this one will go.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 08:20pm
Both Labor and the Liberals have just over a quota each at this stage in the ACT senate race. There has been less than a percent counted there, but the others are all so far behind that it seems pretty clear that the ACT’s two Senate seats will remain unchanged.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 08:10pm
With the polls closing in WA, Labor currently lead by 11 seats nationally, 59 to 48. With 15 seats to count in WA and many of them being held by the Liberals prior to the election, I’d suggest that this is going to be very very close.
I think the swing in Queensland and Western Australia might be enough to get the Liberals over the line, but I don’t think we’ll know tonight.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 08:05pm
The ABC computer now thinks Labor are ahead 62 to 49 seats. I can’t for the life of me work out where it’s getting that figure from.
The AEC website has official current figures of a Coalition lead, 52 to 43.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 07:35pm
Nationally it’s pretty close.
With 18.83% of the votes counted, Labor have won 36 seats, the Coalition 43.
The ABC computer is predicting Coalition 50, Labor 49.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 07:28pm
For the ACT and surrounds.
Eden-Monaro is looking interesting and the vote is fluctuating a lot. Currently with 8.8% counted, the Liberal candidate leads the Labor candidate 44.15% to 41..04%
Hume is clearly returning Liberal Alby Schultz. With 29.56% counted, Alby leads Labor 53.98% to 32%.
Fraser appears to be electing a Labor candidate. Andrew Leigh leads the Liberal candidate 47.68% to 31.24% with 11.18% of the vote counted.
Canberra is also electing Labor, 46.18% to 35.68% with 3.22% counted.
The ACT senate ticket is slow going. They’ve only counted 57 votes, so the results are meaningless at the moment.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 07:25pm
Nationally, seats won according to the electoral commission with 2.52% of the vote counted:
Labor: 7 seats
Coalition: 12 seats
Independents: 1 seat
Prediction from the ABC computer:
Coalition: 45
Labor: 36
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 07:10pm
First seats from the AEC:
NSW: Independent
VIC: Nationals
QLD: Liberal/National Party
TAS: Labor
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 07:00pm
Now I’m seeing a more usual ACT result with Labor leading in both seats. Fraser 45%-30%. Canberra 42%-34%.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 06:57pm
Early ACT results have the Liberals in the lead. In Fraser with 0.2% counted the Liberals have 46%, Labor 37%. In Canberra the Liberals lead Labor 43%-39%.
Nothing in the senate yet.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 06:54pm
The first two seats have been awarded by the electoral commission. Labor have got both of them, and they’re both in Tasmania.
Currently the national two party preferred system has the Coalition leading 59-41% and the ABC computer is giving the coalition 32 seats and Labor 19.
Early ACT results are interesting. They will follow in a moment.
Samuel
August 21st, 2010 at 06:52pm
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| 29 | 30 | 31 | ||||