The Sunday Share: When you see the alien invasion but nobody believes you

“I saw a UFO and nobody believes me” and if you described seeing some of the odd alien creatures in this video, I’m not surprised they don’t believe you!

Samuel

Add comment May 26th, 2024 at 11:58pm

The horses of poetry

Clippity clippity clop
The horses wouldn’t go in the gate
The starter couldn’t start the race
The punters were sad
The bookies were mad
So the jockeys went and ran the race
The horses were pleased
The punters appeased
Clippity clippity clop

Samuel

1 comment May 23rd, 2024 at 05:01am

Finding more value with greyhound dutching by adding insurance

Continuing from last week’s video of finding value on the dogs by dutching at level stakes, this week I provide an update on results from last week’s strategy, and continue looking for more value at level staking by adding a hedge bet (insurance) on the favourite, with results from some days of that. Plus, the next stage in testing, and some exciting news about the return of British greyhound racing to free to air television.

Hedge Dog Bot: https://redirect.samuelgs.com/hedgedogbot.htm

Ayozat’s Towcester Greyhound Derby Championship coverage: https://www.ayozat.com/ppv/details/greyhound-derby-2024-season-ticket

Samuel

2 comments May 21st, 2024 at 07:16pm

The mouse of poetry

Squeakity squeakity mouse
The mouse is in the house
The cheese that’s there
Might not stay there
Squeakity squeakity mouse

Samuel

2 comments May 21st, 2024 at 05:00am

The Sunday Share: When the expert assures you the alien invasion is neither possible nor happening, while it happens

Jeff Wayne’s musical rendition of The War Of The Worlds is a true masterpiece. And I always get a bit of amusement from the assertions early in the piece from the expert astronomer that nothing could possibly live on mars, let alone be coming from there to invade.

There is a highlight right at the end in the epilogue where NASA have sent a rover to Mars and then lose communications with it and the rest of their facilities (including one in “Can-Berra” which great considering I live in Canberra) and another invasion begins.

Samuel

1 comment May 19th, 2024 at 05:02pm

A levitating election

Last night while I was watching the federal budget (or the “Magical Mythical Numbers Night at the Federal Circus” as I have taken to calling it, given I don’t think there’s been a believable budget in almost 20 years, apart from one about ten years ago) I noticed Bill Shorten sitting at the far end of the front bench and it reminded me of a dream I had just before the 2019 election when he was the opposition leader.

In that year I was booth captain for a political party at one of the polling places in Canberra. This meant I was effectively the supervisor of the volunteers for that party at that polling place, there for the full day to set up and pack up, and coordinate the volunteers through the day while also speaking to voters myself and handing out how to vote cards, etc. I recall taking a 45 minute break for a late breakfast / early lunch but that was my only real break in the day, and I was there until well into the evening as a scrutineer for the vote count as well. On that day I also helped set up signage at a number of other polling places around Canberra, so it was a very long day, and the days preceding it were very busy with campaign activities too. I am no longer a member of that political party, or any political party for that matter, having become very disillusioned with much of politics and governments since.

Naturally the election was on my mind quite a lot in the days before that election, and it is no surprise that it entered my dreams.

In the dream it was Election Day, probably early-afternoon, and Bill Shorten turned up at my polling place.

The voters didn’t pay much attention to him so he decided to get their attention by making things levitate, including the building being used as the polling place.

The election official in charge, my Year 6 teacher Mrs. Brophy, came out of the polling place and furiously told Bill that “levitating is not permitted within the 6 metre campaigning exclusion zone” and he must “put the building down at once”, so Bill put the building down and Mrs. Brophy closed the polls early and started counting the ballots in the middle of the road.

Seeing Bill Shorten down the far end of the front bench on the TV coverage of the budget, with seemingly a bit of a gap between him and the rest of the front bench, made me wonder if he ever dreams of being back in the leadership role of the Labor Party, and if he could, if he would levitate things in the House of Representatives to make it happen?

Samuel

Add comment May 15th, 2024 at 06:36am

Looking for value when dutching greyhounds at level staking

As a number of people who watch these videos have expressed an interest in level staking, as opposed to the progression or recovery staking systems in most of the videos to date, I have set about trying to find an automated system which can deliver profit with level stakes on the greyhounds. The trick is to find odds which exceed the strike rate of certain runners.

In smaller greyhound fields, the outsiders of the field tend to present this value while still having a reasonable chance of winning races and delivering a profit.

For this I am using Hedge Dog Bot

My testing hasn’t all been smooth sailing but it has led me to a system which I’m now testing and has started off well. Here’s a look at what I’ve tested and what I’m doing now. And in a week I’ll come back with more results.

Samuel

Add comment May 14th, 2024 at 05:33pm

The magical powers of a teapot

In this dream I was in Antarctica and working for Chief Superintendent Christopher Foyle (of the TV show “Foyle’s War”) where I made the great discovery that it was possible not only to detect a murderer by using the magical powers of a teapot, but to restrain a suspect too.

Mr. Foyle was greatly pleased by this as a combination of Antarctica’s occupational health and safety policies and their human rights legislation meant it was no longer permissible to physically touch or hold a suspect in the course of arresting them, and Mr. Foyle was absolutely adamant that those laws must be strictly adhered to, so detaining people by waving a teapot around made working within the rules much easier.

Mr. Foyle informed me that the fact I am a wizard was his main reason for hiring me, as he thought skills involving magic and inanimate objects would come in handy one day.

Samuel

1 comment May 9th, 2024 at 11:32pm

Sorting data and graphing data from betting bots

I received an email the other day with some questions about obtaining data from the betting bots I’ve been using and demonstrating, and graphing that data.

For the most part I think it’s a fairly straight forward process, but there’s a few little tips and tricks which can make the data more useful, so I thought it warranted a video.

Samuel

Add comment May 5th, 2024 at 02:19pm

The Sunday Share: When the alien invasion isn’t quite what it seems

Some songs are a real product of their time and a glimpse into the prevailing mindset of the day. This is one of them.

From a time when the cold war and nuclear armageddon seemed to be a real and imminent threat, and UFO sightings were a dime a dozen, along came a song from The Buchanan Brothers to combine the two with a dose of religious advice. A real time capsule of its day.

Samuel

3 comments May 5th, 2024 at 10:21am

Bonus shots at the crocodile golf

I had a most peculiar dream yesterday that I was playing golf with dinosaurs. Big furry purple dinosaurs. The dinosaurs were very friendly although they didn’t speak any English and roared occasionally.

To make the game stranger, the par score on each hole was variable. There was the standard par score, but before teeing off it was required that you had to search the hole and catch a crocodile. The crocodile, which did speak English, would then award you extra shots on the hole’s par score depending on a criteria which wasn’t entirely clear but a dinosaur did try to explain to me through roars and placing multiple crocodiles on scales and weighing golf balls.

On one hole which was notionally a par 5 I was granted a par 8 and the dinosaur was granted a par 9. I have absolutely no idea why though.

Samuel

2 comments May 1st, 2024 at 05:11am

Listening to the ANZAC Day dawn service

Every year on ANZAC Day I look forward to listening to the dawn service from Martin Place on the radio. This dawn service is on the television, of course, on almost all networks, but I find there is something very special about listening to the service rather than seeing it.

My preference is to listen in a dark room, maybe even in bed with no light whatsoever. The service becomes more intimate in this way and allows a mental image to be drawn of a quiet, humble service by candlelight occurring just as the sun starts to make its light known. More importantly it allows me to imagine what our servicemen and servicewomen endure in dark and hostile locations around the world, and specifically given it is ANZAC Day and the anniversary of the landing at Gallipoli in World War I, how our soldiers in that time must have felt, in the dark, on the other side of the world, with their only link to the rest of the world being a radio if they were lucky and an occasional letter service at other times.

I made the mistake one year of turning on the television for the Martin Place dawn service and was aghast at the entire area being floodlit. I know light is important for television, but it ruins the atmosphere of a very important and solemn event in my view.

The marches during the day require light and a generally happy atmosphere of gratitude, but this is not the case for the dawn services which occur in the dark as a commemoration of the events of the fateful landing at Gallipoli at dawn on April 25, 1915, and deserve a solemn atmosphere which dark and candlelight provide, and floodlights do not.

May your ANZAC Day be special and reflective.

Samuel

1 comment April 25th, 2024 at 02:05am

A simple little strategy for betting on the top two greyhounds per race

With a 57% strike rate this is a decent strategy, but this is not a “set and forget” system. In order to be profitable it does require a few minutes of management each day.

This is using the Stop At A Winner Greyhound Deluxe software to dutch bet (proportionate bet sizes per runner to receive the same amount of profit regardless of which one of them wins) the top two favourites in the market. In my testing over the course of two weeks, it has generally returned a daily profit of about 100x whatever the per-winning-race profit target is set to.

There have been some drawdowns and stop losses hit along the way, which is why a bit of daily management is required to keep it on track. I explain the details of how to do this in the video, along with a second way of managing it which returns a lower profit but also carries a lower risk of hitting a stop loss and so potentially could be a better way to manage the system in the long run.

Samuel

7 comments April 24th, 2024 at 12:10pm

The Sunday Share: The strange things you used to see on TV at night

Somewhere around 2006 to 2008, a new and bizarre twist on the gameshow format took over the wee small hours of television both in Australia and the UK, maybe elsewhere too. It was a live-to-air interactive gameshow which tried to get viewers to call in to answer extremely simple questions for a chance to win cash prizes. The catch was that these shows were really there to make money for the networks by requiring viewers to ring premium rate phone numbers for a chance to get through, and most of the time the callers did not get through but were instead put on a callback list, and eventually when a producer decided enough money had been made, one of those callers would be called back at random…in the middle of the night, when the majority of the target audience was inebriated or crazy.

In between calls it was the host’s job, with some support from the crew, to fill time with whatever their imagination could dream up. Many many hours of filling airtime while the hosts slowly went as crazy as some of the callers.

What could possibly go wrong?

Well…one of the hosts of the British version of Quizmania, Greg Scott, was the subject of more than a few peculiar live-to-air moments and managed to roll with most of them very well indeed. This has been one of my favourite video clips on the internet for many years. My favourite moment is the caller who seems to have called the wrong channel with an answer to a question on a competing show on another network.

Eventually these shows died off almost entirely, although there was a studio in the Czech Republic churning out dozens of versions this type of show for various countries only a few years ago. As free-to-air TV viewership dwindles, it’s hard to see how this type of thing would make enough money to pay the bills these days. It was a strange form of fun while it lasted.

Samuel

Add comment April 21st, 2024 at 06:12pm

A slow but steady little horse racing strategy

Thank you to all of you for your patience during my recent absence. I would like to especially thank those of you who offered your kind wishes to my mother while she was in hospital. Mum is back at home now, happy and comfortable, but still requires surgery at a date in the future which is yet to be set.

Today I have for you a rather simple little strategy which works quite slowly but also quite steadily on the horse racing markets. This is looking at the place market and looking to lay the favourite if it is at odds of 1.60 to 1.99. This generally indicates that although it is the favourite, it is quite a weak favourite, and often this results in it not running a place. Most favourites tend to sit at 1.50 or lower on the place market so this strategy doesn’t get a lot of bets but it does tend to get a good percentage of successful bets.

This is using the Stop At A Winner Deluxe software.

I am running this on races globally, wherever Betfair offers a place market. This is generally every horse and harness race in Australia and New Zealand, just about every race in the UK and Ireland, and then some of the French, South African and American races. The settings are fairly straight forward.

Saw Deluxe lay place settings
(click image to enlarge)

On these settings I would recommend a balance of $200 as a starting point (and yes, I know my balance is less than that in the screenshot, but I had some unexpected expenses recently and withdrawing some funds from Betfair was the best option at the time, and it does mean I’m running a bit of a risk having less than an ideal amount of funds to work with for this strategy but it has been steady over the month that it has been running so I’m willing to take that risk at this point in time).

These graphs show you results over the last month of testing, running a Stop At A Winner Staking method. You can see it has made approximately $80 in the month. Not a huge amount, but it has done so in a fairly steady manner with only two brief drawdowns of note.

Graph on a bet-by-bet basis
Graph on a day-by-day basis

It’s worth noting that the place market doesn’t have a heap of liquidity and not every race globally has a place market, and the number of races with a favourite in the target range is a fairly small percentage of events. But it is being selective in this manner which allows the system to flourish. Keeping the odds under 2.00 also means the stop at a winner staking method escalates in bet size quite slowly, which also helps to maintain it as a fairly safe and steady system. And the Stop At A Winner Deluxe software handles the job quite nicely.

Samuel

Add comment April 15th, 2024 at 02:11pm

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