A simple little strategy for betting on the top two greyhounds per race
April 24th, 2024 at 12:10pm
With a 57% strike rate this is a decent strategy, but this is not a “set and forget” system. In order to be profitable it does require a few minutes of management each day.
This is using the Stop At A Winner Greyhound Deluxe software to dutch bet (proportionate bet sizes per runner to receive the same amount of profit regardless of which one of them wins) the top two favourites in the market. In my testing over the course of two weeks, it has generally returned a daily profit of about 100x whatever the per-winning-race profit target is set to.
There have been some drawdowns and stop losses hit along the way, which is why a bit of daily management is required to keep it on track. I explain the details of how to do this in the video, along with a second way of managing it which returns a lower profit but also carries a lower risk of hitting a stop loss and so potentially could be a better way to manage the system in the long run.
Samuel
Entry Filed under: Adventures In Betting
7 Comments
1. crafty | May 15th, 2024 at 10:44 am
Hi Samuel
I fired up an old bot (Greys Dutch Traps) and set it up as you did using the “safe” way that you suggested towards the end of video. After 7 days using the 5c base it is averaging a profit of $1.27 per day using just Aus and NZ. I would like to crank this up a bit but after seeing the quick progression to bets of around $5 after 4 or 5 losses it seems a lot after starting with a 5c base!
I note that you include UK and Ireland which I will look at now.
Are the returns from those venues similar to what you are getting from Aus and NZ?
Many thanks for your great efforts,
Tony
2. Samuel | May 15th, 2024 at 11:22 am
Hi Tony,
$1.27 average per day off a 5c base is a little bit lower than what I was seeing in testing but if you’re only doing AU/NZ then that, plus the natural variability of one day or week to the next would explain that.
On the UK tracks I see roughly the same strike rate as the AU/NZ tracks for the top two favourites, however the UK seems to be more prone to runs for or against. It averages out but the wins aren’t as evenly spread as they are in AU/NZ, which can pose a problem for SAW staking. It was the main reason why the “safer” system with the lower hard target often did better than the open target as it was usually finished before one of the runs against occurred.
And you’re right, the escalations can be pretty quick. The dutch on the top two favourites in most cases is effectively returning an odds-on value, which will escalate quickly. Eg, if the top two favourites are at odds of $2.30 and $2.82 with a 5% commission, the return on a $1 stake should one of them win is $1.25. I wouldn’t back an individual runner on SAW staking at odds of $1.25 due to the escalations after losses, but with the 55% strike rate backing the top two, the risk is reduced a fair bit.
Those escalations make the scalability of the system limited, as it would become harder to get matched due to the limited liquidity in greyhound racing. A 50c base seeing escalations to $50 would probably be OK, but I wouldn’t want to push it any higher than that really.
3. crafty | May 15th, 2024 at 11:46 am
Thanks Samuel
I will give UK a try from today. Have set it up on a separate tab so I can easily check results.
Keep up your great work.
Tony
4. Samuel | May 15th, 2024 at 11:24 pm
I wish you well with it Tony
5. crafty | May 20th, 2024 at 11:19 pm
Hi Samuel,
I had a look at the UK but decided against it after coming up with what could be a better idea and allow me to stick to Aus and NZ.
The bot I am using has 3 tabs so I thought why not use more than one tab with the same “safe” settings (other than different times to put bets on.)
I tried with 2 tabs and results look good. I had expected each tab to come up with the same result but they do vary quite a bit which was a surprise.
If profits continue I will include third tab for a bit more action!
All the best
Tony
6. Samuel | May 20th, 2024 at 11:51 pm
Hi Tony.
That’s fair enough. The UK is a little bit odd in that the long-term strike rate for the top two favourites seems to be about the same as AUS/NZ but there is more short-term variation which poses some challenges for any form of recovery staking.
I’ve been running just AUS/NZ races with 6-8 runners on the “safe” settings for the last week or so. Sunday was a down day but otherwise it has been performing well. I’m running multiple tabs and yes I see variability across the tabs but they usually even out after a while.
7. crafty | May 21st, 2024 at 11:52 pm
Thanks Samuel,
Looks like we are in the same boat…lets hope there is plain sailing ahead.
Cheers