With a 57% strike rate this is a decent strategy, but this is not a “set and forget” system. In order to be profitable it does require a few minutes of management each day.
This is using the Stop At A Winner Greyhound Deluxe software [1] to dutch bet (proportionate bet sizes per runner to receive the same amount of profit regardless of which one of them wins) the top two favourites in the market. In my testing over the course of two weeks, it has generally returned a daily profit of about 100x whatever the per-winning-race profit target is set to.
There have been some drawdowns and stop losses hit along the way, which is why a bit of daily management is required to keep it on track. I explain the details of how to do this in the video, along with a second way of managing it which returns a lower profit but also carries a lower risk of hitting a stop loss and so potentially could be a better way to manage the system in the long run.
Samuel
4 Comments To "A simple little strategy for betting on the top two greyhounds per race"
#1 Comment By crafty On May 15, 2024 @ 10:44 am
Hi Samuel
I fired up an old bot (Greys Dutch Traps) and set it up as you did using the “safe” way that you suggested towards the end of video. After 7 days using the 5c base it is averaging a profit of $1.27 per day using just Aus and NZ. I would like to crank this up a bit but after seeing the quick progression to bets of around $5 after 4 or 5 losses it seems a lot after starting with a 5c base!
I note that you include UK and Ireland which I will look at now.
Are the returns from those venues similar to what you are getting from Aus and NZ?
Many thanks for your great efforts,
Tony
#2 Comment By Samuel On May 15, 2024 @ 11:22 am
Hi Tony,
$1.27 average per day off a 5c base is a little bit lower than what I was seeing in testing but if you’re only doing AU/NZ then that, plus the natural variability of one day or week to the next would explain that.
On the UK tracks I see roughly the same strike rate as the AU/NZ tracks for the top two favourites, however the UK seems to be more prone to runs for or against. It averages out but the wins aren’t as evenly spread as they are in AU/NZ, which can pose a problem for SAW staking. It was the main reason why the “safer” system with the lower hard target often did better than the open target as it was usually finished before one of the runs against occurred.
And you’re right, the escalations can be pretty quick. The dutch on the top two favourites in most cases is effectively returning an odds-on value, which will escalate quickly. Eg, if the top two favourites are at odds of $2.30 and $2.82 with a 5% commission, the return on a $1 stake should one of them win is $1.25. I wouldn’t back an individual runner on SAW staking at odds of $1.25 due to the escalations after losses, but with the 55% strike rate backing the top two, the risk is reduced a fair bit.
Those escalations make the scalability of the system limited, as it would become harder to get matched due to the limited liquidity in greyhound racing. A 50c base seeing escalations to $50 would probably be OK, but I wouldn’t want to push it any higher than that really.
#3 Comment By crafty On May 15, 2024 @ 11:46 am
Thanks Samuel
I will give UK a try from today. Have set it up on a separate tab so I can easily check results.
Keep up your great work.
Tony
#4 Comment By Samuel On May 15, 2024 @ 11:24 pm
I wish you well with it Tony