I was going to write a post similar to my AFL post summarising my thoughts on each team and what is likely to unfold through the finals, but as the NRL finals haven’t started yet, I just see too many uncertain matches and permutations for me to be able to figure out where everyone will be at each step. Instead, what I will do is put in some tips for this week, make a couple quick observations about the teams in the finals, and then come back with a more detailed look at the remaining teams next week.
Rabbitohs V Storm
This should be a very good match. Both teams are capable of playing very good football, but in tight situations I think the Rabbitohs are more likely to find a way to score, and the storm are more likely to produce a mind-numbing error. Back-to-back losses are rare for the Storm so I expect them to win in the 2nd week…and I’d certainly be tipping them if they lost last week.
Sharks V Cowboys
This was almost impossible to pick. The Cowboys have a heap of momentum having won their last six matches (including one victory over the Sharks), which is much better than any other team in the competition, but despite this I have been more impressed by Cronulla’s fairly consistent performances. The Sharks might not always win, but they always (since late July, at least) seem to put in a very good effort. I’d be willing to trust the Sharks’ effort over the Cowboys’ recent winning-streak, especially seeing as I don’t particularly like tipping the Cowboys after they have won a few games in a row, as they seem to have a habit of putting in a terrible performance after a string of good ones. That said, if the Cowboys win this match, they might turn out to be very hard to beat through the rest of the finals.
Roosters V Sea Eagles
Both of these sides are a nightmare to tip as you can never be sure whether they are going to have one of their good days or one of their bad days. I don’t think either side can win the grand final because I don’t think either side can consistently play well enough to get that far. This match could go either way and it wouldn’t surprise me, but I’m going with Manly because they lost last week and the Roosters didn’t.
Bulldogs V Knights
I’m a Bulldogs fan and I’d love to be able to tell you that I’m confident that the Dogs will win this, but truthfully I’m always slightly worried about games against Newcastle. The Dogs have been patchy this year and have lost to Newcastle twice, but with a small number of exceptions, the Knights have generally either won by a big margin or lost by a small margin this year which tells me that the Knights can’t usually maintain their intensity for a full match if the other side is competitive. I expect the Bulldogs to try a little bit harder this week seeing as it is a sudden-death final, and so I expect the Bulldogs to win by a small amount, but I also won’t be surprised if the Knights scrape home.
At the moment I’m expecting the Rabbitohs to win the grand final, but the Sharks and Cowboys are both good chances too. I don’t think anyone else can win.
If you are going to have a punt on the finals I’d suggest TAB NRL Finals betting [1]. They currently have the Rabbitohs and Roosters $3.75 premiership favourites, and they don’t think the Sharks or Cowboys have much hope, $21 and $23 respectively. I might have to take them up on that. As for this week’s tips…well they seem to agree with everything except the Sea Eagles beating the Roosters.
Samuel