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Election results and thoughts 7:30pm

Well it is very clearly a big victory for the Coalition with the overwhelming number of seats already looking like they’re heading to the Coalition.

My prediction at the start of the day was Coalition 91, Labor 59, and no others. Right now it looks like the Margin could be bigger than that, and exit polls were predicting a bigger margin than that as well.

Locally, my local candidate for Fraser, Elizabeth Lee, is 319 votes behind incumbent Labor MP Andrew Leigh with 3.45% of the vote counted. There is a good swing on…probably not enough of a swing but it’s a good early sign. Based on how many people marched in to the polling places without taking any how-to-vote cards, I don’t think previous preference distributions are a useful indicator in Fraser.