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Election 8:15pm

Eden-Monaro is an interesting one. It looks like it will go down to preferences.

Currently the Liberals are leading it 43.96% to 42.64% with 45.71% counted. The two-party preferred count has Labor miles ahead, but I think that figure is wrong as it seems to be distributing the Green vote, which will be the last one to be distributed.

A tad over 3% of the vote belongs to independents and minor parties, and it will be distributed before the Green vote is distributed. If we get a result before the Green preferences come in to play, then the Liberals could take this one, but if the Green preferences come in to it, then Mike Kelly will hang on.

The gap keeps changing here, so for a Liberal win, the gap will need to swing back to the Liberals by a couple points at least, which given the changes through the night isn’t impossible, but will be difficult.

Right now, I have no idea which way this one will go.