Samuel's Blog

Election 2013: Mal Brough wins Fisher

Former Howard government minister Mal Brough looks set to win Fisher, the seat currently held by Peter Slipper.

With 47% counted, Mal Brough 16,803, more than double anyone else. Peter Slipper has 550 votes.

Samuel

September 7th, 2013 at 07:58pm

Election 2013: 7:50pm

Early results out of the seat of Melbourne show a big lead to Greens candiate Adam Bandt, indicating that the Greens might manage to hold that seat. He currently has about 47% of the vote with Labor on 24% which should, even if Mr. Bandt doesn’t get over 50%, get him across the line on preferences.

Eden-Monaro is close, with Liberal candidate Peter Hendy holding a 3% lead on first preferences (43-40) over Labor’s Mike Kelly, but with preference predictions looking like they might just keep Mike Kelly in the seat.

Hume is very comfortably going to Angus Taylor for the Liberal Party with 53% of first preferences and nobody else even coming close.

Samuel

September 7th, 2013 at 07:52pm

Election results and thoughts 7:30pm

Well it is very clearly a big victory for the Coalition with the overwhelming number of seats already looking like they’re heading to the Coalition.

My prediction at the start of the day was Coalition 91, Labor 59, and no others. Right now it looks like the Margin could be bigger than that, and exit polls were predicting a bigger margin than that as well.

Locally, my local candidate for Fraser, Elizabeth Lee, is 319 votes behind incumbent Labor MP Andrew Leigh with 3.45% of the vote counted. There is a good swing on…probably not enough of a swing but it’s a good early sign. Based on how many people marched in to the polling places without taking any how-to-vote cards, I don’t think previous preference distributions are a useful indicator in Fraser.

Samuel

September 7th, 2013 at 07:38pm

How I voted

In order to vote for a sensible and stable conservative government, I quite happily followed the Liberal Party’s “how to vote” card for the House Of Representatives, and would thoroughly recommend that people do the same for their local Liberal or National candidate.

I did, however, have to vote below the line for the Senate as I was not comfortable with the full set of preferences. I’m not keen on the Bullet Train Party getting the second set of preferences, so I replaced them with Bob Katter’s party which would be a much more sensible bunch, and I had to push the Voluntary Euthanasia Party as far down the list as possible while keeping Labor and The Greens last. As such, this is how I adjusted the Liberal Party’s senate preferences for my below-the-line vote.

The other benefit to voting below the line is that, due to the complexity of it, the counting is done by computer, not a human, which has some benefits when you consider how convoluted the Senate preferential voting system is.

Samuel

September 7th, 2013 at 10:53am

NRL Tips: Round 26

Broncos V Bulldogs
Rabbitohs V Roosters
Dragons V Warriors
Storm V Titans
Cowboys V Tigers
Sea Eagles V Panthers
Knights V Eels
Raiders V Sharks

Samuel

September 5th, 2013 at 07:09pm

Voting below the line

An email to 2GB’s Ray Hadley, and I will be posting my personal voting intentions in full on this blog later this week

G’day Ray,

We’re lucky in the ACT to only have 27 senate candidates, so I will be voting below the line.

The AEC website has lists of the preference flows of each of the above-the-line options. I’m not entirely happy with the Liberal preference flow so I will be basing my vote on their preferences with a few alterations. I will be keeping The Greens absolute last though.

Regards,
Samuel Gordon-Stewart
Canberra

September 2nd, 2013 at 09:32am

Majority of confusion in minority poll

An email to 2UE’s George Moore and Paul B. Kidd

Good morning George & Paul,

I’m just a little confused this morning. According to The Canberra Times today, a poll commissioned by The Greens says I’m in the minority (ACT says ‘yes’ to gay marriage http://m.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/act-yes-on-gay-marriage-20130831-2sxw8.html) but pretty much every other poll in the country (NewsPoll, Roy Morgan, Nielsen, ReachTel, etc) say I’m in the majority in wanting a Coalition government.

So, if I’m in the minority and the majority, does this mean I add the minority and majority together and represent all views, or that I divide the majority by the minority, or that Canberra is a strange place when The Greens poll it?

I also intend on putting in a pre-poll vote this week so that my name isn’t available on the roll on Saturday for people to perform dodgy votes, and also so I can spend an hour voting below the line in the senate without creating a giant queue out the door.

Won’t you be glad when this is all over next week?

Regards,
Samuel Gordon-Stewart
Canberra

And yes, I am aware the polls are of different people and different subjects. I’m just having some fun on a Sunday morning with a subject which needs a little bit of humour added to it occasionally.

2 comments September 1st, 2013 at 08:54am