October 20th, 2012 at 04:37am
I’m a little rushed so I’ll make this brief. Going in to this election the Legislative Assembly has seven Labor MLAs, six Liberal MLAs, and four Green MLAs.
At the last election the Greens got this many MLAs primarily as a result of a protest vote against both Labor and Liberal parties. Unfortunately for the Greens, their partnership with Labor has annoyed Labor and Liberal supporters and has not been overly successful for Green supporters who have been hoodwinked in to supporting many a Labor plan. I expect the Green protest vote to dissipate and for the Greens’ vote to return to levels which reflect their true level of support in Canberra.
(Greens -2. Labor/Liberal +1 each)
(Labor 8. Liberal 7. Green 2)
From there I expect that the Liberals will pick up at least one more seat. There is definitely a swing towards supporting the Liberals on the ground and it seems to me that a decent proportion of late deciders are late deciders because they are sick of the status quo and are contemplating giving their vote to the Liberals for a change…and it has to be said that the Canberra Times releasing a junk poll and Federal Labor trying to bribe ACT residents in the last few days has really not helped the Labor cause.
I expect from this a swing of at least one seat from Labor to Liberal.
(Labor -1. Liberal +1)
(Liberal 8. Labor 7. Green 2.)
I think this is a likely outcome, and it would result in minority Labor/Green government with reduced numbers.
That said, all it takes is for me to have underestimated ever so slightly the swing as 9-7-1 or 9-6-2, or even less likely 10-6-1.
I’m going to pick Liberal 9, Labor 7, Green 1 as the most likely outcome, based on stronger dissatisfaction with the Greens than I have accounted for, and Liberal 8, Labor 7, Green 2 as my second choice option.