I’m a little rushed so I’ll make this brief. Going in to this election the Legislative Assembly has seven Labor MLAs, six Liberal MLAs, and four Green MLAs.
At the last election the Greens got this many MLAs primarily as a result of a protest vote against both Labor and Liberal parties. Unfortunately for the Greens, their partnership with Labor has annoyed Labor and Liberal supporters and has not been overly successful for Green supporters who have been hoodwinked in to supporting many a Labor plan. I expect the Green protest vote to dissipate and for the Greens’ vote to return to levels which reflect their true level of support in Canberra.
(Greens -2. Labor/Liberal +1 each)
(Labor 8. Liberal 7. Green 2)
From there I expect that the Liberals will pick up at least one more seat. There is definitely a swing towards supporting the Liberals on the ground and it seems to me that a decent proportion of late deciders are late deciders because they are sick of the status quo and are contemplating giving their vote to the Liberals for a change…and it has to be said that the Canberra Times releasing a junk poll and Federal Labor trying to bribe ACT residents in the last few days has really not helped the Labor cause.
I expect from this a swing of at least one seat from Labor to Liberal.
(Labor -1. Liberal +1)
(Liberal 8. Labor 7. Green 2.)
I think this is a likely outcome, and it would result in minority Labor/Green government with reduced numbers.
That said, all it takes is for me to have underestimated ever so slightly the swing as 9-7-1 or 9-6-2, or even less likely 10-6-1.
I’m going to pick Liberal 9, Labor 7, Green 1 as the most likely outcome, based on stronger dissatisfaction with the Greens than I have accounted for, and Liberal 8, Labor 7, Green 2 as my second choice option.
Before I go ahead with this, I must apologise as I would love nothing more than to never hear the song Gangnam Style ever again, however I have to admit to being quite amused by Ray Hadley’s “Labor’s got no style” version…so much so that I can get over any reservations I might have about the original song.
Another little bit of amusement from this is that when I played it, I was shown three ads for Labor candidates in tomorrow’s ACT election. Here’s one of them.
It’s as amusing as seeing all of the Labor ads during The Bolt Report. They’re (most of them anyway) too scared to go on the shows, and think that the ads will somehow impress their audience. Oh they’re a funny lot.
With the ACT election now only a day away, the time has come for me to issue my how-to-vote blog post. As usual, this is not endorsed or authorised by any party or candidate. I should also note that, as I live in the electorate of Molongolo, I am focussing on Molongolo, however I do have some advice for people in other areas.
At the most simple level, I believe that the Labor/Greens government in the ACT has been a disaster. Much of this is down to the ongoing waste and bumbling which is inherent in ACT Labor, but a fair amount of blame must also be heaped on to the Greens who have managed to get their bizarre enviro-statist socialist ways on more than a few occasions, not that Labor have really made any sort of reasonable effort to oppose them.
The ACT Government no longer focuses on core local issues and services, and instead seeks to extend its reach to all manner of other things at the expense of ACT rate payers. This needs to stop. The Canberra Liberals have shown that they have a sane and sensible plan to return the focus of the ACT Government to those services for which it should be responsible such as roads, rates, rubbish (yep, I had to get that phrase in there), health, local ovals and the like.
It is for this reason, and for the reason that Labor has a strong following in Canberra, that I support the message of “vote all Liberal and only Liberal” as it will take a concerted effort to get the current horrid bunch out of power, and those of us who believe in limited, targeted government are going to have to vote carefully to make it happen.
In Molongolo I see four candidates who I would very much like to see win or retain a seat. In alphabetical order they are Steve Doszpot, Jeremy Hanson, Giulia Jones, and Elizabeth Lee. My advice is to rank these four in your order of preference from 1 to 4.
The way I voted for these four, and why:
1. Elizabeth Lee – I have had the great pleasure of getting to know and work with Elizabeth. She has shown great organizational skills and an ability to surround herself with people with whom she works well and can achieve a lot. She is also very passionate about core local services and understands that the ACT Government’s role is a local one with a few state-like responsibilities thrown in. I suspect that we disagree on a few national political issues, but as Elizabeth understands that these are things which should not enter the realm of local politics (something which Labor and the Greens clearly do not understand), I am proud to be able to support Elizabeth.
2. Jeremy Hanson – An incumbent MLA who has demonstrated a great understanding of what is wrong with the ACT Government and how to fix it, especially in the health sector. I gladly gave Jeremy my first preference in 2008 and have been very impressed with his work. I believe that it is important to have one of the “experienced hands” in my top two, and Jeremy is someone I have absolutely no reservation in supporting.
3. Giulia Jones – I have been impressed by Giulia’s energy and enthusiasm over the course of a few campaigns. We have a basic ideological agreement on the role of government and the problems in the current government, along with similar ideological views on things which are and are not within the remit of local government. Giulia also cares about delivering local services efficiently and well. I strongly hope that Giulia finally gets a seat in the Legislative Assembly and helps to shape a sane direction for the ACT Government. I have the utmost confidence that she will.
4. Steve Doszpot – Another incumbent MLA. Steve has a large amount of executive experience and understands what needs to change in the ACT Government. I have a great deal of respect for Steve and his part in shaping the Canberra Liberals plan for Canberra. I hope to see him in charge of a department or two after the election.
I have split my top four and following three for a couple reasons. Firstly, the people mentioned above have my strongest support. Secondly, under the Hare-Clark system which is used in ACT elections, your vote is likely to help your first three or four choices. Beyond that, it may still have some impact, but it will be negligible. As such, I suggest placing the above candidates on whatever of the first four positions you like, and then placing the next three in 5th to 7th, once again in your preferred order.
How I placed them:
5. James Milligan – James has a great deal of private sector experience which is fantastic for a politician as it brings a mindset of efficiency and working within one’s means while still striving to do the best job possible. The fact that James is still willing to serve the local community after not winning a grueling battle for a federal seat tops it off by showing me that he is persistent in achieving things which he sets out to achieve.
I then had a hard time splitting the next two but ended up with:
6. Tom Sefton – Tom seems to be strongly committed to local services and has a good track record of helping the community in various ways.
7. Murray Gordon – Murray seems like a very capable candidate, but his experience seems to be more suited to international policy than local policy from what I have seen. I’m sure that, if elected, he would do a great job, but I would much rather see him run for federal seat.
In the other electorates, I highly recommend the following candidates followed by the rest of the Liberal candidates.
1. Zed Seselja – The party leader who has the vision and leadership skills to provide ACT residents with the stability, sanity and solid planning that they deserve from a Chief Minister.
2. Val Jeffery – If anyone in the ACT cares more about the delivery of local services, especially to the communities which are often forgotten by the ACT Government, than Val does, I’m yet to meet them.
3. Brendan Smyth – Brendan is definitely an old hand and knows the ACT Government inside out, especially “Urban Services” (I still call it that, even if Labor do not). Brendan is one of the people who should be able to diffuse any obstructionism from the ACT Publuc Service.
In no particular order Alistair Coe and Vicki Dunne. Vicki has a long track record of helping people with problems with all manner of government services, and Alistair has proven himself to be a very capable and effective MLA.
If you’ve noticed that I’ve referred to the fact that I have voted, it’s because I have. I pre-polled earlier in the week in the knowledge that I will be busy on election day…very busy indeed. Hopefully after the day is done, election night will be a cause for celebration.
I hope that this summary of my thoughts on the candidates helps you to make a wise choice on election day, and helps the ACT to gain a useful government.
Something seems to be irreparably wrong with the Twitter integration on this blog. Is it a coincidence that it all broke just as an update (which I have not installed) to the Twitter Tools plugin was released which drops support for a few of the functions which broke? I don’t think so.
I probably won’t have time to fix or replace it before ACT election day, but I’ll see about replacing the twitter feed in the sidebar with one that actually works. As for how I get some of the integration functions back, I don’t know right now. That’s one for next week.
I’d believe the Canberra Times poll about the ACT Election if it said anything other than the status quo. The idea that there won’t be any change in the numbers in the Legislative Assembly is crazy.
I expect the Liberals to pick up at least one or two seats, but even if it said Labor would gain seats, I’d be willing to believe that the poll is legitimate. Both Labor and Liberals are annoyed with the Greens, so at the very least the Greens should lose a seat or two.
The poll saying nothing will change sounds like someone set out to produce a particular result with this poll. It just doesn’t ring true with what’s happening on the ground.
Glad your health is OK. Best of luck with all of the follow-up appointments.
You certainly do attract some odd people on the phone. “Be polite to the ALP in Canberra” indeed…what rot, that caller didn’t want you to be polite to Labor, he wanted you to blindly agree with them and their odd ideas.
I really enjoyed his claim that he has a right to listen to 2GB, but 2GB’s presenters don’t have a right to hold an opinion with which he disagrees.
Keep up the good work Mike, and I’m glad you’re playing some of Ray’s songs.
As for the boat people, I believe that Labor implemented part of the Howard Government’s Pacific Solution knowing that without the rest of it, such as TPVs etc, it simply wouldn’t work, and I expect them to eventually use it as an attack against Tony Abbott, working on the basis that many people who don’t follow politics closely will believe the Labor line.
And how ridiculous is it that the European Union received a Nobel Peace Prize. It’s about as dumb as giving Obama one a few days after he took office…and look what he’s done for world peace. If anything, he’s made it worse. The EU is certainly not helping world peace with its amazing debts.
An email to 2GB’s Luke Grant, who is filling in for Ray Hadley today
Good morning Luke,
How sad it is that instead of talking about things that affect people every day like the state of the economy; the carbon dioxide tax, how tax dollars are wasted on public service over-management; how our farmers are treated by wholesalers etc, we are talking about nonsense which reflects the poor quality of parliament such as Peter Slipper, Craig Thomson, imaginary sexism, racism, mysoginy, and how allegedly awful Tony Abbott is for using a common phrase which just happened to be said by Alan Jones in an entirely different context.
Disgraceful! We need an election to restore some sort of usefulness to this federal parliament. What a joke it is.
As long-time readers of this blog would know, I’m not a huge fan of The Canberra Times as I prefer publications such as The Australian and The Daily Telegraph, however it does on occasion have something of genuine interest to me.
Yesterday, after having helped Liberal candidate for Molongolo Elizabeth Lee with her campaigning at the Ainslie Shops, I was helping out with sorting her pamphlets at her office in Civic when the Canberra Times turned up, wanting to put together a profile story about Elizabeth. Today, that story appeared in the paper. I’m pleased about two things about this article. Firstly, it seems to be a fair article. There were some questions asked which made me wonder about the agenda of the journalist, however the article turned out to be quite fair. Secondly, the group photo of all the people who had gathered in Elizabeth’s office on a Sunday afternoon appeared in the paper not once, but twice, with Elizabeth’s personal photo being used on the front page of the Canberra Times’ website.
Here is the front page of today’s Canberra Times.
(Click image to enlarge)
The article itself is on page two, however there is a very brief tease for the article on the front page, under the headline on the left of the page.
The article on page two is accompanied by a large photo. The photo and headline take up most of the space above the fold, with the body of the article mostly being below the fold.
Elizabeth Lee prepares election material with her team at her office in the city. Back, from left: David Lee, John Lee (father), Elizabeth Lee, Cecilia Lee (mother), Front, from left: Candice Burch, Samuel Gordon-Stewart, Rosa Lee (sister), and Kim Lee. Photo: Rohan Thomson
Elizabeth Lee reckons family is the key.
The surprise-package Liberal has been running what is probably the highest profile – and best financed – campaign by a non-incumbent candidate for the October 20 election, becoming a familiar face on the streets of Canberra in the process.
Speaking at her campaign office in Civic yesterday, the Australian National University law lecturer said her Sydney-based Korean-Australian parents were one of the driving forces in her bid for election.
”The key is family support,” Ms Lee said.
”My parents live in Sydney and from April they would come down every single weekend, starting at 4.30 in the morning, drive down and campaign all weekend.
”Dad is here full-time, Mum is now here full-time and the support I get, not just the physical support but the emotional support, is absolutely phenomenal.”
Despite her campaign being bathed in Canberra Liberals colours, the lawyer has been with the party for only two years, and she did not take the decision to join lightly.
”I’ll be the first to say that I was probably a swing voter more than anything else,” she said.
”I joined the Liberal Party in 2010 after giving it quite a lot of thought, after sitting down and really asking what my core belief was.
”I did a lot of research but at the end of the day, the thing that really stood out about the Liberal Party for me was the whole idea of freedom and responsibility and I think we all have a responsibility to make a positive contribution to society.”
Ms Lee believes that her background in legal politics would be good preparation for the real thing.
”I’d been involved in legal politics for a while, with young lawyers of ACT and Australia and ultimately, I really enjoyed doing that kind of stuff, working with different people,” she said.
”I’ve had pretty good opportunities, a good education, great family support.
”It wasn’t a single issue for me, but I’ve always enjoyed doing this sort of work.
”When I was chairing the young lawyers group, and people would ask me what my dream job would be, I’d tell them I’d love to do this.”
As The Canberra Times own this story and accompanying photos, I have deliberately avoided posting this blog post until 6pm so that The Canberra Times gets a fair first run with it. I also linked to the article earlier today so that traffic for the article would go to them in the first instance.
As I noted earlier, I am pleased to see that the article is fair. I have come to know and support Elizabeth in recent times and, although I expect we may disagree on some aspects of federal politics, the big reason I support Elizabeth locally is that she seems to be very committed to efficient local service delivery and recognises that the Legislative Assembly is not the place for federal politics. She has also shown great organisational skills during the campaign so far, which is one of the big things I look for in a candidate. It has been my pleasure to support Elizabeth…and it’s funny how one can become somewhat excited about being in a paper which one doesn’t hold in the highest regard, and how at the same time that paper can improve its standing in my mind with a fair article such as this one.
Brian Wilshire, the long-time evening show host on 2GB who was replaced by Steve Price a few months ago is back, but in a later timeslot. Brian is taking over the overnight shift, replacing Michael McLaren who is returning to his pre-hosting role as a program producer. Brian returns on Monday.
What does remain a mystery though is what timeslot Brian’s show will occupy. It will start at midnight and will, initially at least, run until 5am, but the question is whether 5am is a permanent finishing time, or if Wake Up Australia will return when Andrew Moore’s holidays come to an end.
Interestingly, Michael McLaren will only be producing Brian’s show three days per week, and he has hinted at the possibility of being involved in other things at the station. Whether that means he is taking on a weekend presenting role is anyone’s guess.
The overnight changes aren’t confined to 2GB either. Fairfax Radio have implemented an altered version of their plan to replace 2UE’s overnight show with 3AW’s overnight show. Network stations, including 4BC Brisbane are receiving the 3AW show where, despite promises from Fairfax of the 3AW show becoming more news-oriented, news still seems to be mostly avoided. 2UE is still running its own show with John Cadogan, just without a network audience.
One has to observe that if the Fairfax show remains as heavy on nostalgia as it is, Macquarie would be well-advised to syndicate Brian Wilshire as soon as possible. Brian, conspiratorial as he may be at times, is still more newsy and, in my opinion, more interesting than 3AW’s overnight show.
One other thing which did occur to me is that Brian, with his interest in conspiracies, could put together a very good Australian version of American overnight show Coast To Coast AM which is an amazing ratings success with its mix of news-based discussion, and long-form interviews and talkback about subjects as diverse as conspiracy theories, UFOs, paranormal occurrences and alternative medical theories.
H/t to Frank from Frankster’s Archive for alerting me to Brian’s return. I missed the on-air announcements. Also to John Moulis for his observations about where 3AW’s show is being heard. John also made some interesting observations about the ACT election recently which I’ll share with you soon.