Archive for February 27th, 2012

Labor leadership spill 11:19am: Official: Julia Gillard convincingly retains control of the circus 71-31

It is now official. Julia Gillard has won the Labor leadership ballot by a margin of 71 to 31. It’s a convincing victory and should be enough to shut down the Kevin Rudd party-damaging machine for a while.

This gives Julia the comfort of knowing that she has the support of the majority of her party, and the ability to quash concerns among the independents that she might not be able to have a stable government.

The questions now though are twofold:

1. What will Kevin Rudd do. He promised to move to the backbench quietly, but will he? That’s not exciting or important enough for his liking…I expect to either see him bide his time on the expectation that he will challenge again next year, or he will go to the crossbenches and hold some sort of influence with one of the deciding votes of the parliament.

2. What will happen to the Kevin Rudd supporters, especially the ones who walked in to the caucus room with him? If Kevin stays in Labor, then I expect his supporters to be shuffled out of important positions. A cabinet reshuffle might not be a bad idea anyway.

An exciting day, that’s for sure, but did it achieve anything useful? Probably not.

Samuel

February 27th, 2012 at 11:20am

Labor leadership spill 11:17am

We have movement…stand by…

February 27th, 2012 at 11:18am

Labor leadership spill 11:16am

It’s being recounted apparently. We wait, and wait, and wait…

Samuel

February 27th, 2012 at 11:17am

Labor leadership spill: 10:50am. Unofficial breaking news: Gillard wins 73-29.

Breaking News: It looks like Julia Gillard has won.

Multiple sources saying she has won by 73-29. It’s a leaked and unofficial figure. Stand by for more.

Samuel

February 27th, 2012 at 10:50am

Labor leadership spill 10:28am

The media are all gathered outside the caucus room. I’ve been flicking between TV stations and was watching Nine for a while. During that time, they had a shot of the media gathered outside the caucus room with a Seven reporter (update: it was Alex Hart) prominently in the foreground of the shot, on the phone to someone.

Whoever he was on the phone with must have told him that he was on the rival network as he stopped, turned to the Channel Nine camera, smiled, and waved.

Samuel

February 27th, 2012 at 10:32am

Labor leadership spill 10:05am

Julia Gillard just walked in. It looked like she had 9 or 10 people with her. Kevin had more…but it’s the vote that counts I suppose.

Samuel

February 27th, 2012 at 10:06am

Labor leadership spill: 10:00am

They’re walking in. I counted roughly 12 people walking in with Kevin. Only 40 more votes needed Kev!

Samuel

February 27th, 2012 at 10:03am

The view from the lawns of Parliament House

The media have descended on the lawns of Parliament house, from their Sydney abodes. Here is the view.

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Sky News on the right, Sunrise on the left.

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Sunrise hosts on the left, interview a politician on the right. Why not just bring him in to the tent?

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Sunrise hosts Melissa Doyle and David Koch

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Rob Oakeshott being interviewed by Ten, whose hosts are back in the studio.

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The Today Show’s Karl Stefanovic with someone (Update: it’s former advisor to Kevin Rudd, Lachlan Harris).

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It’s almost a tent embassy of its own.

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I can’t see the ABC, but I’m sure they’re here somewhere.

I think it’s a radio stunt as this person appeared to come from the general direction of the Mix 106.3 car, and was giving an interview to someone on the phone, but it looks like Karl Stefanovic gets at least one vote to become the next Prime Minister.

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Samuel

Update: Here’s Kevin

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Update: Tony Abbott has arrived, and looks set to appear on Sunrise after Kevin.

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Another update: Look at the media swarming around the Sunrise tent with Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott there.

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And my goodness, aren’t they excited when he tries to get to his waiting car.

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A final observation: After Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott appeared on Sunrise from out the front of Parliament House, Kevin Rudd was driven to Parliament in a government car, but Tony Abbott walked. Remind me who was supposedly more environmentally friendly?

Samuel

February 27th, 2012 at 07:37am

Predictions for the Labor leadership showdown

I have been asked (not here, but elsewhere) to predict who will win today, and how many votes Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd will receive.

By the looks of it, only 102 Labor MPs will be voting today due to one of them being absent. This means that 52 votes are needed for there to be a winner. The main problem I see for both sides here is that, if the result is not a landslide (and I am not expecting a landslide) then the loser can cling on to some credibility and make this happen all over again later in the year. For stable government, a landslide is required. Without a landslide, I expect a general election within the year.

To be clear, if the loser receives more than 35 votes, then I expect to see a general election before the year is out. If the loser receives more than 45 votes, then I expect to see a general election called within the next six months.

My prediction for today is that it will be close. I expect Julia Gillard to win, but I don’t expect her to get more than 62 votes. I predict that Julia Gillard will receive between 59 and 62 votes (inclusive) and Kevin Rudd will receive between 40 and 43 votes (inclusive). If I have to pick an exact figure, then I’ll go 61-41.

I seem to be expecting a closer vote than many are, but I doubt that Kevin Rudd would have wanted this unless he knew that he could command a respectable number of votes. To the same extent, Julia wouldn’t have called the leadership spill unless she believed that she would win. I think there are enough people in the Labor ranks with fond memories of poor-but-higher poll numbers under Kevin Rudd to want to give him another chance, but not enough who want to return to his style of dictatorial leadership to make it happen.

Meanwhile, I note that Padders has interviewed a “Parliament House insider” over at The Right Aussie, and they are both expecting a much clearer victory for Julia Gillard. The “insider” is predicting a 74-28 win for Julia, while Padders is predicting a 70-32 win for Julia.

Oh, I forgot to mention what I think will happen if Kevin Rudd becomes Labor leader. That one falls squarely in the “general election to be called within six months” basket.

Samuel

February 27th, 2012 at 07:10am

Mondays with Maritz: Mr. Kevin and Mrs. Julia are much like married couple of to soon divorces

Maritz sent this one through last night. It’s nice to have her back on deck, especially on a day like today

I am do think that Mr. Kevin and Mrs. Julia are much like married couple. They do both of fighting and do sometimes have ideas of different, but at end of day they are much almost same and will forget that they have the different. It will be then that they can be do continue of bad for country, but I am do think that time will come when again they have the fightings and then it will be almost time for to see that they are not much happy and will then have to have big spectacle of public of worses than is currently.

With Mr. Kevin and Mrs. Julia it is much the worses and is almost to divorce, and this could be bad for short time but then good as almost bring might do electings which could be good for having people of public do votings away from the badly governments of Mr. Kevin and Mrs. Julia.

I am previously of from the Russia and was not think I would do find government bad as was old Soviet Russia but the Mr. Kevin and Mrs. Julia and Mr. Bob of Green is all bad as much as Soviet. Different as was always much secret in Soviet Russia but here is in public and is some ways as much bad without doing all as much of badly thing as by making government do look of bad it does the not stable of country and this can be do make many problem. It can be do take secret problems of much and many more to bring as much as bad as this government of Mrs. Kevin and Mr. Julia and Mr. Bob can be do have done.

Also worry is United Nation which is big place of communist people who are much bad and I am do want all country to do the boycott of the United Nation. It is much worry of if Mr. Kevin can be doing be of Prime Minister again as he is much happy with United Nation and this is can be do cause big of problem for country.

I have not ever much done do see this happen of with Mr. Tony and Mrs. Julie of oppositions, but I am do think there was sometimes different between Mr. John and Mr. Peter of government previous, but was much always private and of not public spectacles until newses did causing problems. I am do think that Opposition are much better at being team and doing works for good of country and not for only good of self.

Please to have goodly time of before and after the votings and also I am do hope that country can be doing goodly as is time of difficult. Also soon is electings in of the Russia and is would be much good for Mr. Vladimir to be doing winnings as he can be do stopping influte of United Nation which can be do much cause badly for country.

From Maritz
Ms. Maritzkrozlavsky Throrglasnishozly

February 27th, 2012 at 06:55am

The circus meets today

An email to 2GB’s Andrew Moore

Good morning Andrew,

Well it’s finally arrived, the day of the great circus meeting. Later today the clowns will meet under the big top on the hill in Canberra to vote for a new ringmaster.

Did you know that both of them are magicians? Both of them recant magic phrases such as “moving forward” “let me say this” “clean energy future” and “Mr. Speaker”, and without fail, every time they utter one of these magic phrases, money vanishes from the Treasury coffers!

I’m tipping that Julia will stay in charge, but regardless of the outcome, I don’t think anything will change for the better.

Regards,
Samuel Gordon-Stewart
Canberra

February 27th, 2012 at 04:11am


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