- Samuel's Blog - https://samuelgordonstewart.com -

How long until this government collapses?

If the rest of the Parliament doesn’t withdraw support from them, surely the in-fighting will be the end of them seeing as the poll numbers are just getting worse and worse [1].

Primary support for major parties. Newspoll January 31, 2012
(h/t Newspoll/The Australian [2])

Two-party preferred support. Newspoll January 31, 2012
(h/t Newspoll/The Australian [2])

I’m at a loss to explain the two-party preferred figures. Labor and the Greens both lost ground on their primary votes, and yet the Labor number is unchanged. Are Newspoll assuming that all non-Liberal/National votes automatically get distributed to Labor?

Meanwhile Julia Gillard has suffered quite a personal setback after the events of the last few weeks.

During the break – marked by the Prime Minister dumping her written agreement with Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie on poker machine reforms and the controversy over her office’s role in triggering a riot on Australia Day – Ms Gillard’s personal standing fell. Satisfaction with the Prime Minister dropped from 36 per cent last month to 33 per cent last weekend.

Ms Gillard also gave ground to the Opposition Leader as preferred prime minister, with her seven-point lead last month halving to three points as her support fell from 43 per cent to 40 per cent while Mr Abbott’s was a steady 37 per cent last weekend.

(h/t Dennis Shanahan, Political Editor of The Australian. Note: subscription required to view entire article [1].)

Preferred Prime Minister. Newspoll January 31, 2012
(h/t Newspoll/The Australian [2])

Satisfaction with party leaders. Newspoll January 31, 2012
(h/t Newspoll/The Australian [2])

I think we’re in for a very interesting year in Australian federal politics.

Samuel