Archive for November 3rd, 2010

Midterm 2010: CBR 3:55pm EDT 12:55am WDT 9:55pm

Alrighty then. This will probably be my last rolling update for the day as we’ve pretty much run out of things to update, plus the fact that I have to be somewhere soon, and I have to be at work really early in the morning. I will aim (but can’t promise depending on my sleep requirements) to post some sort of summary in the wee hours of the morning, although if that falls through, you can look forward to it later tomorrow.

In the Nevada Senate race, Harry Reid has hung on to defeat Sharron Angle. I’m disappointed, but that’s the way it goes. On the bright side, Brian Sandoval has prevented Rory Reid from extending the Reid dynasty. Brian will be the new Governor of Nevada.

In California, various websites are confusing me by telling me that Barbara Boxer has hung on to her Senate seat (shudder) with less votes than Carly Fiorina. I don’t understand what’s going on there, so I’ll wait for something more concrete.

Sadly Jerry Brown is the replacement for the Governator, defeating Meg Whitman.

Some good news from California is that the silly proposal to legalise marijuana has been defeated, currently 56%-44%.

Alaska has only just closed, so we’ll be waiting for that one for a while, especially given the remote nature of many of the polling booths.

Overall though, it’s a great victory of historic magnitude for the Republicans, having taken the majority in the House and reduced to a mere handful the Democrats’ majority in the Senate, meaning that the Democrats no longer have a filibuster-proof majority. To that end, I’m very pleased that Nancy Pelosi has flown out of the House on Broomstick One (as Rusty Humphries quite cleverly called it earlier) for the final time. She’ll have to broom-pool like the rest of the representatives now.

As I said, I’ll run a more thorough summary later on. Suffice to say though, I’m pleased. As with any election there are a few disappointments, but overall this has been a great election.

Samuel

November 3rd, 2010 at 04:08pm

Midterm 2010: CBR 3:12pm EDT 12:12am WDT 9:12pm

ALERT: CBS and ABC have now both declared a majority to the Republicans in the Senate. Currently CBS has R 219 – 161 D, while ABC has R 226 – 175 D.

Samuel

November 3rd, 2010 at 03:13pm

Midterm 2010: CBR 3:03pm EDT 12:03am WDT 9:03pm

ALERT: CBS and NBC have put the Democrats on 50 Senate seats to the Republicans 44. ABC have since joined them.

Any slight chance the Republicans had of taking the Senate is now gone.

Samuel

November 3rd, 2010 at 03:04pm

Midterm 2010: CBR 2:55pm EDT 11:55pm WDT 8:55pm

Back to Nevada and the gap between Reid and Angle is closing…slowly. Will it be enough? Who knows.

11% of the vote Counted: Reid (D) 52% – 44% Angle (R)

For the Governorship
11% of the vote counted: Sandoval (R) 52% – 43% Rid (D)

It looks like Pat Toomey has won the Pennsylvania Senate race for the Republicans. Currently with almost the whole thing counted he leads Democrat Joe Sestak 51%-49%.

Samuel

November 3rd, 2010 at 02:58pm

Midterm 2010: CBR 2:45pm EDT 11:45pm WDT 8:45pm

House
FOX R 192 – 122 D
CBS R 211 – 157 D
ABC R 215 – 166 D
NBC R 196 – 128 D

218 is needed for a majority.

Senate
FOX R 44 – 47 D
CBS R 44 – 48 D
ABC R 44 – 48 D
NBC R 44 – 49 D

51 is needed for a majority.

Samuel

November 3rd, 2010 at 02:48pm

Midterm 2010: CBR 2:40pm EDT 11:40pm WDT 8:40pm

Nevada numbers really starting to flow now.

Harry Reid is leading 52%-43% with 11% of the vote counted. There’s still a long way to go in this one, but it’s not off to a good start.

Brian Sandoval has a 51% to 45% lead over Rory Reid for the Governorship.

In Arizona, Jan Brewer is clearly being returned as Governor. She has a 63% to 34% lead over Terry Goddard.

In California I’m not seeing numbers big enough to say much, except for Prop 19 on the legalisation of Marijuana. Currently 56% of people have been sensible and voted against it.

Overall numbers in the next update.

Samuel

November 3rd, 2010 at 02:45pm

Midterm 2010: CBR 2:20pm EDT 11:20pm WDT 8:20pm

Super-dooper early Nevada numbers from Casey and Heather on KDOX Las Vegas.

A statistical tie between Sharron Angle and Harry Reid for the Senate race.

Brian Sandoval has a decent lead in the Governor’s race.

These are super early numbers though, and so little of the vote has been counted that these might just be unhelpful. Either way, Nevada numbers starting to flow is great news.

Samuel

November 3rd, 2010 at 02:22pm

Midterm 2010: CBR 2:18pm EDT 11:18pm WDT 8:18pm

OK, a numbers flyaround…

House
FOX R 167 – 115 D
CBS R 207 – 150 D
ABC R 215 – 166 D
NBC R 178 – 118 D

Senate
FOX R 44 – 47 D
CBS R 44 – 48 D
ABC R 44 – 48 D
NBC R 45 – 48 D

Samuel

November 3rd, 2010 at 02:20pm

Midterm 2010: CBR 2:10pm EDT 11:10pm WDT 8:10pm

Good news in Arizona. The Governor’s race there is clearly going to incumbent Jan Brewer. With 10% of the vote in, Jan leads the Democrat Terry Goddard by 63%-34%.

California is way too close for me to call. I’m getting weird inconsistencies in numbers from various sources, so I’ll leave it be for now.

As for Nevada, nothing nada zilch right now. A power failure in one part of the state may have delayed some figures, but I’m not seeing anything out of the state yet. The wait to see the Senate race there is excruciating.

Samuel

November 3rd, 2010 at 02:15pm

Midterm 2010: CBR 1:40pm EDT 10:40pm WDT 7:40pm

That Senate race is really starting look very very close. The House of course is a tsunami.

House
FOX R 123 – 70 D
CBS R 174 – 115 D
ABC R 183 – 126 D
NBC R 147 – 93 D

Senate
FOX R 41 – 45 D
CBS R 42 – 47 D
ABC R 42 – 47 D
NBC R 43 – 47 D

Incidentally (bearing in mind the earlier disclaimer about the usual uselessness of exit polls) Sharron Angle is winning the independent vote, but not as much of the Republican vote as Harry Reid is of the Democrat vote. Politico goes in to some detail, but doesn’t give an overall figure. That probably means that the exit poll was roughly 50/50 overall, with a half point favouring one of the candidates, and the exit poll people just don’t want their name on an incorrect result.

Samuel

November 3rd, 2010 at 01:41pm

Midterm 2010: CBR 1:30pm EDT 10:30pm WDT 7:30pm

Here’s a picture which certainly says a thousand words. The current state of the House election…
State of the House at 1:28pm

Drudge Report is right when it says:

TSUNAMI ALERT FOR HOUSE: 60 SEAT WAVE

Samuel

November 3rd, 2010 at 01:32pm

Midterm 2010: CBR 1:15pm EDT 10:15pm WDT 7:15pm

The Senate is almost certainly still out of reach for the Republicans, but the gap is narrowing.

FOX R 41 – 45 D
CBS R 41 – 47 D
ABC R 41 – 47 D
NBC R 41 – 47 D

I’m standing by my prediction of the margin in the Senate being two or three. It’ll go to the Democrats, but it will be so close that it will almost certainly be setting up a Republican takeover in the 2012 election.

Samuel

November 3rd, 2010 at 01:18pm

Midterm 2010: CBR 1:00pm EDT 10:00pm WDT 7:00pm

Just before the western states (including Alaska) close their polls, a quick wrap up of the current numbers. The western states carry a large number of the house seats, so they’ll largely determine the size of the Republican majority in the House (although the Dems still think they can miraculously win enough seats to hold the House).

I’m intrigued by the fact that some news agencies seem to be willing to call some races with much less of the vote counted than other news agencies. The different methods certainly make it interesting to watch.

House
FOX R 86 – 46 D
CBS R 155 – 105 D
ABC R 158 – 118 D
NBC R 115 – 68 D

Senate
FOX R 38 – 45 D
CBS R 41 – 47 D
ABC R 39 – 47 D
NBC R 39 – 47 D

So, now with the western states closing, standby for some clarity on the size of the margins. FOX are predicting a 60 seat majority (correction, they’re predicting a 60 seat gain, which would make a majority of 43) to the Republicans while NBC predicts a 37 seat majority.

Samuel

November 3rd, 2010 at 01:03pm

Midterm 2010: CBR 12:37pm EDT 9:37pm WDT 6:37pm

*sigh* Barneys Fwank won his seat again. Another two years of needing subtitles every time he speaks, and still not being able to make any sense of his pure nuttery.

In other news, if I’m not mistaken, the western states will close their polls at the top of the hour. This means that, among others, the Arizona, Nevada and California polls will close. Some very interesting races in that lot.

Samuel

November 3rd, 2010 at 12:38pm

Midterm 2010: CBR 12:28pm EDT 9:28pm WDT 6:28pm

Some good news from the Florida Governor’s race (yeah I know it’s the Gubernatorial race, but I usually forget how to spell that about half way through). Republican Rick Scott holding a solid lead of Democrat Alex Sink 51% to 46%.

Overall numbers from FOX show:
House: R 86 – 46 D
Senate: R 38 – 45 D

The Senate to me looks like it’s going to come down to a margin of two or three and we’re not likely to know the final outcome for at least a few days, maybe a few weeks if some of these go to the courts, and considering the apparent pro-Harry Reid voter fraud in Nevada, I can’t see that race not taking most of the week at the least.

Samuel

November 3rd, 2010 at 12:32pm

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