Archive for August, 2010

Election 11:00pm

It should be noted that the independents are generally conservative, and I don’t think I’ve made mention of that yet tonight. They will help get Tony Abbott in to office.

Samuel

August 21st, 2010 at 11:01pm

Election 10:59

Maybe Tony Abbott is reading my blog tonight (hello Tony!)…Seven say that he’s going to make a statement shortly.

Samuel

August 21st, 2010 at 10:59pm

Election 10:54pm

Ohhhh tiredness wave #2…and I have to be at work by 6am. Can Julia and Tony please hurry up and make their statements?

Meanwhile, with 73.34% counted, the AEC has:
Labor 60
Coalition 59
Greens 1
Other 3
Undecided 27 (of which three are in WA)

Counting must be about to wrap up in most places for the night, so it must surely be time for the speeches and then the going to bed.

Samuel

August 21st, 2010 at 10:56pm

Election 10:48

The Coalition have enough of the primary vote in WA to get the majority of the remaining seats there, which should ensure that they have at least as many if not more seats than Labor.

Currently according to the AEC, Labor have 60 seats, the Coalition 57 and there are four seats left in WA, 29 left in total across the country.

According to the TV network predictions:
ABC
Coalition 71 – Labor 70 – Other 5 – Doubt 4

SBS
Labor 72 – Coalition 69 – Other 4 – Doubt 5

Ten
Labor 70 – Coalition 69 – Other 4 – Doubt 7

Seven
Labor 72 – Coalition 70

Nine
They still haven’t put the useful graphic back on the screen, although they do put the Coalition at four seats short of 76…so Coalition 72 – Labor ???

Sky News
Labor 72 – Coalition 70 – Other 4

Samuel

August 21st, 2010 at 10:47pm

Election 10:41

Julia Gillard will be making a statement soon.

Samuel

August 21st, 2010 at 10:41pm

Election 10:33

This has all slowed right down now. Obviously the remaining seats are all very close and difficult to predict.

The ACT senate race looks settled. Kate Lundy will get back in as she definitely has a quota. Gary Humphries should stay in as well…he is just under a quota, but any preferences from anywhere should push him over the line.

Eden-Monaro sadly looks like it will remain with Labor’s Mike Kelly. He currently leads Liberal David Gazard 44.01% to 42.15% with 74.08% counted. The independent preferences could go to David and put him slightly ahead, but not far enough for him to be safe from a Labor-directed Green preference blitz.

Samuel

August 21st, 2010 at 10:38pm

Election 10:18

Official AEC figures on seats won:
Labor: 60
Coalition: 57
Greens: 1
Other: 3
Still to be decided: 29

73.65% of the vote has been counted.

Samuel

August 21st, 2010 at 10:21pm

Election 10:15

OK back on deck now, and a quick run-around of the TV stations (I had forgotten about SBS…I suppose most of the country had as well).

ABC
Coalition: 71
Labor: 69
Other: 5
Doubt: 5

Seven
Labor: 72
Coalition: 68

Nine
Had Labor up by one seat before they pulled the details off the screen

SBS (it looks like they’ve repainted the World Cup set…looks pretty dodgy)
Labor: 73
Coalition: 69
Other: 4
Doubt: 4

Samuel

August 21st, 2010 at 10:18pm

Election 9:51

There’s a chance of Wayne Swan losing his seat. It depends on the independent and Family First preferences flowing to the Coalition. This will give the Coalition a significant lead heading in to the distribution of Green preferences which, given the swing to the Greens in that seat, could go anywhere.

The end of Wayne “traffic jams cause inflation” Swan? That would be nice…I’d give it a 55% chance.

Samuel

August 21st, 2010 at 09:53pm

Election 9:32

Apologies for the slowdown, I’m trying to eat dinner and keep an eye on a number of screens for interesting bits of information.

The ABC computer has the Coalition ahead now, 70 seats to 68 with 7 in doubt. Nine still have Labor leading by four, but that figures bobs about every 30 seconds or so.

The AEC have Labor on 60, the Coalition on 57 with 29 seats to go.

Samuel

August 21st, 2010 at 09:35pm

Election 9:19pm

With 60.09% of the vote counted, the AEC has awarded 59 seats to Labor, 54 to the Coalition, three to independents, one to the Greens and 33 still to be counted, 18 of which are in WA and Queensland.

Samuel

August 21st, 2010 at 09:21pm

Election 9:17pm

2GB are calling an Abbott victory based on the number of seats they’ve gained excluding Western Australia. Once you add in WA and the remainder of Queensland which is currently being blitzed by the Coalition, it’s hard to escape their conclusion.

Samuel

August 21st, 2010 at 09:19pm

Election 9:01pm

The gap seems to be closing across all of the computer models of the TV networks. The Coalition are also confident of gaining a seat in Western Australia.

Keep an eye on the figures over the next hour or so as some Eastern seats become clearer and the WA seats start to come through.

Samuel

August 21st, 2010 at 09:03pm

Election 8:52 :: Bold Prediction Time!

Right, time for my “no backing out” bold prediction of the night. Currently Labor hold 59 seats, Coalition 51 according to the AEC. With 15 seats to come in from WA, I predict that Tony Abbott will be our Prime Minister. Probably a minority government…but the Coalition will hold power.

Samuel

August 21st, 2010 at 08:54pm

Election 8:49pm

Well the ticker on WIN has gone mad. It tries to cycle through all of the seats, but just keeps showing Fraser. Not sure if it’s a Nine or WIN issue.

Samuel

August 21st, 2010 at 08:49pm

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